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Autor(en): Weimer-Jehle, Wolfgang
Vögele, Stefan
Hauser, Wolfgang
Kosow, Hannah
Poganietz, Witold-Roger
Prehofer, Sigrid
Titel: Socio-technical energy scenarios : state-of-the-art and CIB-based approaches
Erscheinungsdatum: 2020
Dokumentart: Zeitschriftenartikel
Seiten: 1723-1741
Erschienen in: Climatic change 162 (2020), S. 1723-1741
URI: http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bsz:93-opus-ds-131808
http://elib.uni-stuttgart.de/handle/11682/13180
http://dx.doi.org/10.18419/opus-13161
ISSN: 0165-0009
1573-1480
Zusammenfassung: Energy conversion is a major source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and energy transition scenarios are a key tool for gaining a greater understanding of the possible pathways toward climate protection. There is consensus in energy research that political and societal framework conditions will play a pivotal role in shaping energy transitions. In energy scenario construction, this perspective is increasingly acknowledged through the approach of informing model-based energy analysis with storylines about societal futures, an exercise we call “socio-technical energy scenario construction” in this article. However, there is a dispute about how to construct the storylines in a traceable, consistent, comprehensive, and reproducible way. This study aims to support energy researchers considering the use of the concept of socio-technical scenarios in two ways: first, we provide a state-of-the-art analysis of socio-technical energy scenario construction by comparing 16 studies with respect to five categories. Second, we address the dispute regarding storyline construction in energy research and examine 13 reports using the Cross-Impact Balances method. We collated researcher statements on the strengths and challenges of this method and identified seven categories of promises and challenges each.
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