Browsing by Author "Birkmann, Jörn"

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Open Access
Adaptation after extreme flooding events : moving or staying? The case of the Ahr Valley in Germany
(2023) Truedinger, Alessa; Jamshed, Ali; Sauter, Holger; Birkmann, Jörn
More than 130 lives were lost in the 2021 heavy precipitation and flood event in the Ahr Valley, Germany, where large parts of the valley were destroyed. Afterwards, public funding of about 15 billion Euros has been made available for reconstruction. However, with people and settlements being in highly exposed zones, the core question that is not sufficiently addressed is whether affected people want to rebuild in the same place, or rather opt to move out. The paper explores this question and assesses motivations and reasons for moving or staying in the Ahr Valley. For this purpose, a household survey was conducted focusing on 516 flood-affected households. The collected data was analyzed using descriptive and inferential statistics. The results revealed that the ownership of the house or flat significantly influenced the decision of whether to stay or to leave. In addition, an attachment to the place and the belief that such extreme events occur very rarely influenced the decision to stay and rebuild. Age, gender and household income barely influenced the decision to stay or to move to a new place. Interestingly, results demonstrated that many respondents view settlement retreat and the relocation of critical infrastructures as important options to reduce risk, however, many still rebuild in the same place. These insights enable local policy and practice to better address the needs of the population in terms of whether to stay or move after such an extreme disaster.
Open Access
A conceptual framework to understand the dynamics of rural-urban linkages for rural flood vulnerability
(2020) Jamshed, Ali; Birkmann, Jörn; Feldmeyer, Daniel; Rana, Irfan Ahmad
Rural areas are highly vulnerable to floods due to limited social, economic, and physical resources. Understanding rural vulnerability is vital for developing effective disaster risk reduction strategies. Even though rural areas and cities are intrinsically linked, rural vulnerability was assessed without considering its relation to cities. Numerous theoretical frameworks on systemizing and assessing vulnerability were developed with varying level of scope and depth in terms of scale, dimensions, and components. Nevertheless, these frameworks did not explicitly mention the impact of flood or other hazards on the linkages between spatial units i.e., rural and urban. This study aims to understand and conceptualize the rural vulnerability with respect to the dynamics of rural-urban linkages in the case of flood events. To do so, current literature on rural-urban linkages, vulnerability, as well as factors that influence them were critically reviewed. Taking into account the main elements of rural-urban linkages (flow of people, information, finances, goods and services), components of vulnerability (exposure, susceptibility, and capacity), and factors (social, economic, institutional, infrastructural, spatial, and environmental), a unified framework is proposed. The framework underscores that the role of rural-urban linkages is essential to fully understand rural flood vulnerability. Moreover, the framework highlights the role of spatial factors-city size and proximity to the city-as crucial to comprehend rural vulnerability. This framework can be used as a tool for understanding multifaceted rural vulnerability for climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction considering spatial development perspective. In this context, empirical investigations can be made to validate the proposed framework and policies can be introduced accordingly. Overall, the proposed framework can help recognize concepts and links of vulnerability, rural–urban dependencies, and rural development dynamics.
Open Access
Flood risk reduction - what are the priorities? : the perspective of privatehouseholds after the Ahr flood of 2021
(2025) Truedinger, Alessa; Birkmann, Jörn
Severe flooding, induced by heavy rainfall in Central and Western Europe in July 2021, particularly affected the Ahr Valley in Rhineland‐Palatinate, Germany. Since flood preparedness and prevention of private households play a crucial role in the risk management cycle and in terms of climate adaptation, a household survey was conducted in the county of Ahrweiler in the aftermath of the disaster to examine the perceptions and actions of private households after such a disaster with regard to flood prevention. We have found that public information, communication, and education play a crucial role for improving flood prevention of private households. Furthermore, we were able to identify approaches for improved flood prevention, also in terms of spatial planning. In addition, we examined enabling factors for the implementation of flood risk reduction measures, where information and assistance from public authorities play a prominent role. Overall, the respondents expect a great amount of state support, both financially and in terms of information. Our results can help public authorities to improve their own flood prevention as well as the flood preparedness of citizens.
Open Access
Global vulnerability hotspots : differences and agreement between international indicator-based assessments
(2021) Feldmeyer, Daniel; Birkmann, Jörn; McMillan, Joanna M.; Stringer, Lindsay; Leal Filho, Walter; Djalante, Riyanti; Pinho, Patricia F.; Liwenga, Emma
Climate change impacts and their consequences are determined not only by the intensity and frequency of different climatic hazards but also by the vulnerability of the system, society or community exposed. While general agreement exists about the importance of assessing vulnerability to understand climate risks, there is still a tendency to neglect global and regional vulnerability patterns because they are hard to quantify, despite their value in informing adaptation, disaster risk and development policies. Several approaches to quantifying global vulnerability exist. These differ in terms of the indicators they use and how they classify countries or regions into vulnerability classes. The paper presents the structure of selected approaches and explores two indices in depth. The aim of this paper is to assess the level of agreement between selected international indicator-based assessments of vulnerability, at the level of climate regions. Results suggest that the two major global vulnerability assessments analysed largely agree on the location of the most and least vulnerable regions when these assessments are aggregated to a regional scale using the IPCC’s climate regions. The paper then discusses the robustness of the information derived and its usefulness for adaptation, disaster risk and development policies. Measuring progress towards reducing vulnerability to climate change and hazards is key for various agencies and actors in order to be able to develop informed policies and strategies for managing climate risks and to promote enabling conditions for achieving the SDGs and building resilience.
Open Access
Heat vulnerability and adaptive capacities : findings of a household survey in Ludwigsburg, BW, Germany
(2021) Laranjeira, Kevin; Göttsche, Franziska; Birkmann, Jörn; Garschagen, Matthias
In 2019, record-setting temperatures in Europe adversely affected human health and wellbeing (WMO 2020) and cities - thus, people in urban areas suffered particularly under heat stress. However, not only heat stress but also the differential vulnerability of people exposed is key when defining adaptation priorities. Up to now, local data on vulnerability and particularly adaptive capacities is rather rare. Various aspects of human vulnerability to heat and capacities to adapt to heat stress in urban areas still have to be explored and assessed, for example in terms of the adaptation at home, during work or while commuting to work. The paper presents new findings of a household survey on how and where different groups experience heat stress and how they assess their susceptibility and capacities to cope and adapt. The findings are based on a survey conducted in the medium-sized city of Ludwigsburg, Germany. Findings show significant linkages and correlations between socio-economic factors and heat vulnerability and capacities to respond. The analysis gives special emphasis to relationships between willingness to implement adaptive measures to reduce heat stress risks and risk perception and adaptive capacities. Particularly, the analysis of future adaptation options and the ability and willingness of different households to implement these provides new insights on the differential capacities to adapt and the need for tailor-made transformation programs.
Open Access
How does perceived heat stress differ between urban forms and human vulnerability profiles? : case study Berlin
(2025) Iqbal, Nimra; Ravan, Marvin; Mitraka, Zina; Birkmann, Jörn; Grimmond, Sue; Hertwig, Denise; Chrysoulakis, Nektarios; Somarakis, Giorgos; Wendnagel-Beck, Angela; Panagiotakis, Emmanouil
Urban areas in all world regions are experiencing increasing heat stress and heat-related risks. While in-depth knowledge exists in terms of the urban heat island effect and increased heat stress in cities in the context of climate change, less is known about how individual heat perceptions and experiences differ between urban forms or with different vulnerability profiles of exposed people. It is crucial to identify and assess differences within cities relating to urban form and social structure, as both need to be considered when designing adaptation plans for heat-related risks. Here, we explore linkages between urban structure types (USTs), heat stress perception and different socio-economic groups' experiences in Berlin using a household survey, statistical and earth observation data. Our approach (1) quantifies perceived heat stress across USTs, considering characteristics such as, age, income, vegetation cover and shade, (2) characterises social dimensions of USTs to enhance their application in climate adaptation and (3) benefits from the synergistic disciplinary approach of the urbisphere project with rich social and physical datasets. Although heat stress exposure is higher in the inner-city ring, we find that a higher percentage of vulnerable groups in the outer city (6 to 18 km from the city centre), where 78 % of Berlin's elderly live. We underscore the need for attention in future adaptation plans based on the USTs, human vulnerability profile and adaptive capacities. For example, in densely spaced building blocks 67 % of respondents perceived high heat stress and fractions of vegetation and shade are comparatively very low. The method and findings can inform future adaptation strategies of other cities to consider different profiles of vulnerability and adaptive capacities within and between USTs.
Open Access
The impact of science : uptake of scientific recommendations after extreme events : case study floods in 2021 in Germany
(2025) Birkmann, Jörn; Truedinger, Alessa; Schuettrumpf, Holger
In summer 2021, heavy precipitation caused major flooding in central Europe, affecting areas in Germany, the Netherlands, and Belgium. The Ahr Valley in Germany was one of the most adversely affected areas, with more than 135 deaths and major destruction within a 50 km path along the Ahr. The federal government of Germany and the federal states affected established a reconstruction fund of 30 billion euros. The recovery and reconstruction process is still ongoing. Much attention has been given to the analysis of the flood disaster; however, this paper explores and documents how selected scientific recommendations developed within a transdisciplinary project (called KAHR) have influenced decisions within the reconstruction process in terms of strengthening climate‐resilient recovery. We assess factors that increased the uptake and impact of selected scientific recommendations as well as factors that hindered the uptake. We find, for example, that the urgency for rebuilding large parts of the Ahr Valley and the fact that policy processes were open for scientific inputs increased the uptake and impact. Also, the transdisciplinary nature of the KAHR project helped in translating science into practice. In contrast, time pressure to reconstruct rapidly, uncertainties of what is going to be financed by the reconstruction fund, and existing zoning and building regulations hindered the uptake of selected scientific recommendations toward resilience building. Finally, we argue that science needs a formal role in post‐disaster reconstruction processes in order to strengthen resilience, as this allows the latest scientific findings to be incorporated to support resilient reconstruction and allows for a more neutral perspective in discussions and decisions.
Open Access
Linkages between typologies of existing urban development patterns and human vulnerability to heat stress in Lahore
(2022) Iqbal, Nimra; Ravan, Marvin; Jamshed, Ali; Birkmann, Jörn; Somarakis, Giorgos; Mitraka, Zina; Chrysoulakis, Nektarios
The combined effects of global warming, urbanization, and demographic change influence climate risk for urban populations, particularly in metropolitan areas with developing economies. To inform climate change adaptation and spatial planning, it is important to study urban climatic hazards and populations at risk in relation to urban growth trends and development patterns. However, this relationship has not been adequately investigated in studies dedicated to climate vulnerability. This study identifies the typologies of development patterns within Lahore, Pakistan, investigates the heat vulnerability of residents at a neighborhood scale, and establishes a relationship between both of these factors. We identified urban clusters with diverse development patterns. Fourteen context- and site-specific indicators were selected to construct a human heat vulnerability index. Weighted sum, cluster analysis, and ANOVA test of variance were conducted to analyze the data. Our results demonstrate that development patterns significantly influence human vulnerability to heat stress, e.g., vulnerability is higher in older cities and undeveloped neighborhoods with less diverse land uses. These findings are essential for informing policy-makers, decision-makers and spatial planners about proactive adaptation planning in dynamic urban environments.
Open Access
Managed retreat as adaptation option : investigating different resettlement approaches and their impacts : lessons from metro Manila
(2021) Lauer, Hannes; Delos Reyes, Mario; Birkmann, Jörn
Managed retreat has become a recommended adaptation strategy for hazard-prone coastal cities. The study aimed to improve considerations for the contextual factors that influence the success of managed retreat and resettlement projects in Metro Manila. Data were collected through a mixed-method approach consisting of a screening of relevant literature, a qualitative case analysis of resettlement projects, and a workshop series with Philippine stakeholders. It turned out that the resettlement of informal settlers is a central element of urban development. Though in-city resettlement is preferred, the majority of existing and planned projects are developed in off-city locations. The findings present a nuanced view of different retreat approaches. Not all in-city resettlements are successful, and the unpopular off-city projects have a potentially important role for urban and regional development. A strategic planning thread to develop concepts for qualitative off-city settlements that counteract uncontrolled urban sprawl with monofunctional residential areas for urban poor people was deduced. The other thread asks for pathways for inner-city development with innovative, vertical, in-city projects. A final observation was that climate change and the COVID-19 pandemic are worsening the situation in informal settlements, thus strengthening the argument for the planned decentralization of Metro Manila’s congested urban areas.
Open Access
Mapping vulnerability to climate change for spatial planning in the region of Stuttgart
(2025) McMillan, Joanna M.; Göttsche, Franziska; Birkmann, Jörn; Kapp, Rainer; Schmidt, Corinna; Weisser, Britta; Jamshed, Ali
The Stuttgart region in southwest Germany already experiences heat stress and extreme precipitation events. According to German law, spatial planning at the municipal and regional levels has an important role in adapting to such events. However, this is a challenge to achieve alongside other demands on land use. One important resource to support adaptive planning is spatial risk analyses, which can provide justification for prioritising adaptation and information about where and how to prioritise different measures. Such maps should not just consider information on the nature of the hazards but also on the vulnerability of people and exposed areas. While in theory this has been recognised and vulnerability analysis methods have been developed, there is a significant gap in linking this research to planning practice in the German context. In this paper, we use a GIS-based method for mapping quantitative indicators of social vulnerability to heat and pluvial flooding for the region of Stuttgart. We share insights from the process of developing these maps based on the needs of spatial planning and discuss how such information can be used in planning practice. We propose solutions regarding issues such as spatial resolution, indicator selection, aggregation, and complexity; report initial feedback from planners; and make recommendations for further bridging the gap between risk and vulnerability research and planning practice.
Open Access
New methods for local vulnerability scenarios to heat stress to inform urban planning : case study City of Ludwigsburg/Germany
(2021) Birkmann, Jörn; Sauter, Holger; Garschagen, Matthias; Fleischhauer, Mark; Puntub, Wiriya; Klose, Charlotte; Burkhardt, Albrecht; Göttsche, Franziska; Laranjeira, Kevin; Müller, Julia; Büter, Björn
Adaptation strategies to climate change need information about present and future climatic conditions. However, next to scenarios about the future climate, scenarios about future vulnerability are essential, since also changing societal conditions fundamentally determine adaptation needs. At the international and national level, first initiatives for developing vulnerability scenarios and so-called shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) have been undertaken. Most of these scenarios, however, do not provide sufficient information for local scenarios and local climate risk management. There is an urgent need to develop scenarios for vulnerability at the local scale in order to complement climate change scenarios. Heat stress is seen as a key challenge in cities in the context of climate change and further urban growth. Based on the research project ZURES (ZURES 2020 website), the paper presents a new method for human vulnerability scenarios to heat stress at the very local scale for growing medium-sized cities. In contrast to global models that outline future scenarios mostly with a country-level resolution, we show a new method on how to develop spatially specific scenario information for different districts within cities, starting from the planned urban development and expansion. The method provides a new opportunity to explore how different urban development strategies and housing policies influence future human exposure and vulnerability. Opportunities and constraints of the approach are revealed. Finally, we discuss how these scenarios can inform future urban development and risk management strategies and how these could complement more global or national approaches.
Open Access
Qualitative risk assessment of sensitive infrastructures at the local level : flooding and heavy rainfall
(2025) Truedinger, Alessa; Birkmann, Jörn; Fleischhauer, Mark; Ferreira, Celso
The flood disaster of July 2021 claimed the lives of more than 220 people in western and central Europe - particularly severely affected was the Ahr Valley in Germany, where the floods caused at least 135 fatalities, damaged and destroyed more than 9000 buildings, and caused billions of euros in damage. To prevent such a disaster from happening again, it is crucial not only to simply rebuild, but also to build up in a way that strengthens resilience to future events. Since time and money are often critical issues in the reconstruction process, it is important to focus on the most vulnerable groups as well as critical and sensitive infrastructures, as these need particular attention and support for risk reduction and resilience building within the recovery process. This paper systematizes how critical and sensitive infrastructures are defined and explores how the flood risk that a sensitive infrastructure is facing can be determined by an easy-to-use framework for qualitative risk assessment. This assessment can be used as a basis for deciding between on-site (re)construction and resettlement, as well as the protective measures to be taken. A detailed application of the framework assessment is carried out with regard to a school for children with disabilities that is located directly at the river Ahr.
Open Access
Risk reduction through managed retreat? : investigating enabling conditions and assessing resettlement effects on community resilience in Metro Manila
(2024) Lauer, Hannes; Chaves, Carmeli Marie C.; Lorenzo, Evelyn; Islam, Sonia; Birkmann, Jörn
Managed retreat, a key strategy in climate change adaptation for areas with high hazard exposure, raises concerns due to its disruptive nature, vulnerability issues and overall risk in the new location. On-site upgrading or near-site resettlement is seen as more appropriate and effective compared to a relocation far from the former place of living. However, these conclusions often refer to only a very limited set of empirical case studies or do not sufficiently consider different context conditions and phases in resettlement. Against this background, this paper examines the conditions and factors contributing to community resilience of different resettlement projects in Metro Manila. In this urban agglomeration reside an estimated 500 000 informal households, with more than 100 000 occupying high-risk areas. In light of the already realized and anticipated climate change effects, this precarious living situation exposes families, already socio-economically vulnerable, to an increased risk of flooding. The response of the Philippine government to the vexing problem of informal dwellers has been large-scale resettlement from coasts, rivers and creeks to state-owned sites at urban fringes. However, only very few resettlement projects could be realized as in-city projects close to the original living space. The study employs a sequential mixed-method approach, integrating a large-scale quantitative household survey and focus group discussions (FGDs) for a robust comparison of resettlement types. Further, it reveals community-defined enabling factors for managed retreat as climate change adaptation strategy. Results indicate minor variations in well-being conditions between in-city and off-city resettlement, challenging the expected impact of a more urban setting on resilience. Instead, essential prerequisites for resettlement involve reduced hazard exposure, secure tenure and safety from crime. Beyond these essential conditions, social cohesion and institutional support systems emerge as significant influencers for the successful establishment of well-functioning new settlements. With this findings, the study contributes to the expanding body of literature on managed retreat, offering a comprehensive evaluation based on extensive datasets and providing entry points for the improvement of retreat as a climate change adaptation strategy.
Open Access
Spatial planning and systems thinking tools for climate risk reduction : a case study of the Andaman Coast, Thailand
(2022) McMillan, Joanna M.; Birkmann, Jörn; Tangwanichagapong, Siwaporn; Jamshed, Ali
The impact of climate change and related hazards such as floods, heatwaves, and sea level rise on human lives, cities, and their hinterlands depends not only on the nature of the hazard, but also on urban development, adaptation, and other socioeconomic processes that determine vulnerability and exposure. Spatial planning can reduce climate risk not just by influencing the exposure, but also by addressing social vulnerability. This requires that relevant information is available to planners and that plans are implemented and coordinated between sectors. This article is based on a research project in Thailand, particularly on the results of multi-sectoral workshops in the case study region of the Andaman Coast in southern Thailand, and draws upon climate risk, spatial planning, and systems thinking discourses. The article formulates recommendations for planning in the context of Thailand that are relevant for other rapidly growing and urbanizing regions. Among other conclusions, it suggests that systems thinking approaches and cross-sectoral strategies are ways to grasp the interdependencies between and within climate risk and spatial development challenges.