06 Fakultät Luft- und Raumfahrttechnik und Geodäsie
Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://elib.uni-stuttgart.de/handle/11682/7
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Item Open Access A probabilistic approach to characterizing drought using satellite gravimetry(2024) Saemian, Peyman; Tourian, Mohammad J.; Elmi, Omid; Sneeuw, Nico; AghaKouchak, AmirIn the recent past, the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission and its successor GRACE Follow‐On (GRACE‐FO), have become invaluable tools for characterizing drought through measurements of Total Water Storage Anomaly (TWSA). However, the existing approaches have often overlooked the uncertainties in TWSA that stem from GRACE orbit configuration, background models, and intrinsic data errors. Here we introduce a fresh view on this problem which incorporates the uncertainties in the data: the Probabilistic Storage‐based Drought Index (PSDI). Our method leverages Monte Carlo simulations to yield realistic realizations for the stochastic process of the TWSA time series. These realizations depict a range of plausible drought scenarios that later on are used to characterize drought. This approach provides probability for each drought category instead of selecting a single final category at each epoch. We have compared PSDI with the deterministic approach (Storage‐based Drought Index, SDI) over major global basins. Our results show that the deterministic approach often leans toward an overestimation of storage‐based drought severity. Furthermore, we scrutinize the performance of PSDI across diverse hydrologic events, spanning continents from the United States to Europe, the Middle East, Southern Africa, South America, and Australia. In each case, PSDI emerges as a reliable indicator for characterizing drought conditions, providing a more comprehensive perspective than conventional deterministic indices. In contrast to the common deterministic view, our probabilistic approach provides a more realistic characterization of the TWS drought, making it more suited for adaptive strategies and realistic risk management.Item Open Access Current availability and distribution of Congo Basin’s freshwater resources(2023) Tourian, Mohammad J.; Papa, Fabrice; Elmi, Omid; Sneeuw, Nico; Kitambo, Benjamin; Tshimanga, Raphael M.; Paris, Adrien; Calmant, StéphaneThe Congo Basin is of global significance for biodiversity and the water and carbon cycles. However, its freshwater availability and distribution remain relatively unknown. Using satellite data, here we show that currently the Congo Basin’s Total Drainable Water Storage lies within a range of 476 km 3 to 502 km 3 , unevenly distributed throughout the region, with 63% being stored in the southernmost sub-basins, Kasaï (220-228 km 3 ) and Lualaba (109-169 km 3 ), while the northern sub-basins contribute only 173 ± 8 km 3 . We further estimate the hydraulic time constant for draining its entire water storage to be 4.3 ± 0.1 months, but, regionally, permanent wetlands and large lakes act as resistors resulting in greater time constants of up to 105 ± 3 months. Our estimate provides a robust basis to address the challenges of water demand for 120 million inhabitants, a population expected to double in a few decades.Item Open Access Remote sensing-based extension of GRDC discharge time series : a monthly product with uncertainty estimates(2024) Elmi, Omid; Tourian, Mohammad J.; Saemian, Peyman; Sneeuw, NicoThe Global Runoff Data Center (GRDC) data set has faced a decline in the number of active gauges since the 1980s, leaving only 14% of gauges active as of 2020. We develop the Remote Sensing-based Extension for the GRDC (RSEG) data set that can ingest legacy gauge discharge and remote sensing observations. We employ a stochastic nonparametric mapping algorithm to extend the monthly discharge time series for inactive GRDC stations, benefiting from satellite imagery- and altimetry-derived river width and water height observations. After a rigorous quality assessment of our estimated discharge, involving statistical validation, tests and visual inspection, results in the extension of discharge records for 3377 out of 6015 GRDC stations. The quality of discharge estimates for the rivers with a large or medium mean discharge is quite satisfactory (average KGE value > 0.5) however for river reaches with a low mean discharge the average KGE value drops to 0.33.The RSEG data set regains monitoring capability for 83% of total river discharge measured by GRDC stations, equivalent to 7895 km 3 /month.Item Open Access Spaceborne river discharge from a nonparametric stochastic quantile mapping function(2021) Elmi, Omid; Tourian, Mohammad J.; Bárdossy, András; Sneeuw, NicoThe number of active gauges with open‐data policy for discharge monitoring along rivers has decreased over the last decades. Therefore, spaceborne measurements are investigated as alternatives. Among different techniques for estimating river discharge from space, developing a rating curve between the ground‐based discharge and spaceborne river water level or width is the most straightforward one. However, this does not always lead to successful results, since the river section morphology often cannot simply be modeled by a limited number of parameters. Moreover, such methods do not deliver a proper estimation of the discharge's uncertainty as a result of the mismodeling and also the coarse assumptions made for the uncertainty of inputs. Here, we propose a nonparametric model for estimating river discharge and its uncertainty from spaceborne river width measurements. The model employs a stochastic quantile mapping scheme by, iteratively: (a) generating realizations of river discharge and width time series using Monte Carlo simulation, (b) obtaining a collection of quantile mapping functions by matching all possible permutations of simulated river discharge and width quantile functions, and (c) adjusting the measurement uncertainties according to the point cloud scatter. We validate our method over 14 different river reaches along the Niger, Congo, Po Rivers, and several river reaches in the Mississippi river basin. Our results show that the proposed algorithm can mitigate the effect of measurement noise and also possible mismodeling. Moreover, the proposed algorithm delivers a meaningful uncertainty for the estimated discharge and allows us to calibrate the error bars of in situ discharge measurements.