Assessing long-term post-conflict air pollution : trends and implications for air quality in Mosul, Iraq

Abstract

Prolonged conflicts in Iraq over the past four decades have profoundly disrupted environmental systems, not only through immediate post-conflict emissions-such as residues from munitions and explosives-but also via long-term infrastructural collapse, population displacement, and unsustainable resource practices. Despite growing concern over air quality in conflict-affected regions, comprehensive assessments integrating long-term data and localized measurements remain scarce. This study addresses this gap by analyzing the environmental consequences of sustained instability in Mosul, focusing on air pollution trends using both remote sensing data (1983-2023) and in situ monitoring of key pollutants-including PM2.5, PM10, TVOCs, NO2, SO2, and formaldehyde-at six urban sites during 2022-2023. The results indicate marked seasonal variations, with winter peaks in combustion-related pollutants (NO2, SO2) and elevated particulate concentrations in summer driven by sandstorm activity. Annual average concentrations of all six pollutants increased by 14-51%, frequently exceeding WHO air quality guidelines. These patterns coincide with worsening meteorological conditions, including higher temperatures, reduced rainfall, and more frequent storms, suggesting synergistic effects between climate stress and pollution. The findings highlight severe public health risks and emphasize the urgent need for integrated urban recovery strategies that promote sustainable infrastructure, environmental restoration, and resilience to climate change.