Browsing by Author "Baidya, Suman K."

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    Trace gas and particulate matter emissions from road transportation in India : quantification of current and future levels, uncertainties and sensitivity analysis
    (2008) Baidya, Suman K.; Kühne, Reinhart (Prof. Dr.)
    Despite being a major emitting nation in the world, there is a huge lack of reliable, updated, and detailed information of road transport's emissions in India for both current and future levels. In this work, a detailed bottom up emission inventory for road transportation in India has been prepared for the year 2005, analyzing the available data and making plausible assumptions for vehicle stock on road, annual mileages and emission factors. This inventory brings the calculation of road transport’s exhaust emissions in India one step further to a sophisticated modeling that is standard for industrialized countries. Emissions for the future (years 2020 and 2030) are also estimated by developing three plausible scenarios (high growth, business as usual and sustainable) for developments in vehicle stock, activity factors (mileages), and emission rates. The bottom up scenario quantification is as detailed as the emission inventory. This is the first that detailed comprehensive bottom up study on the emissions from road transportation in India. This is also the first detailed study for the criteria pollutants - both for the current situation and the future developments. The IPCC SRES2000 scenarios are interpreted and used first time for the road transportation sector in India to develop scenarios of traffic growth and evolution of emission rates in the future. Throughout the study, the vehicular emissions in the mega cities are quantified and analyzed separately, and compared with the rest of the nation. The inclusion of non-exhaust PM emissions as well as emissions from tractors on road is also a new but novel and important step for India. The uncertainties in the emission inventory are quantified, identifying the probable sources. Sensitivity analyses are also carried out to identify the most critical factors in the emission scenarios. It lends itself for further improvement and differentiation, but already provides novel quantitative details for the region with little information. The emission inventory prepared for the year 2005 shows that motorized two wheelers (M2W) and heavy duty trucks (HDT) are the most important vehicle categories in terms of emissions. Nationally, two wheelers are responsible for almost half of VKM, CO and HC emissions, and about 16% of PM; with about only 8% fuel use. HDTs are responsible for slightly more than half of CO2, NOx and SO2 emissions, and about 40% of PM emissions. The emission scenario is dominated by the rest of the country (share: 85%-90%). Certification, inspection, and maintenance contribute from two thirds to three quarters of uncertainties in criteria pollutant emissions for the year 2005. The range of total uncertainty is from 80% in NOx to about 200% in CO. The scenario results strongly depend on quantitative assumptions made with respect to the increase in traffic volume and improvements in the vehicle technologies. Energy demand and CO2 emissions in the road transportation sector are expected to grow dramatically in the coming decades (between 3.3 and 7.4 times of the current level in 2030). Passenger vehicles will need less energy than freight vehicles, except for the sustainable scenario. Heavy duty trucks will be the largest consumer of energy (36% to 48% share in 2030), cars being a distant second (12% to 24% share in 2030) at the national level. However, a major share of energy demand (37% to 62% in 2030) will come from cars and light duty trucks (LDT) in the mega cities. The trend of high growth in fuel consumption and CO2 emissions will continue unless the economic growth slows down or major changes in surface transportation occur. The major changes required in urban road transportation are: controlled growth and use of passenger cars and LDTs and a higher use of buses as well as non motorized transportation. Extra urban transportation requires a modal shift towards railways for intercity freight transportation. Otherwise, increased bill of fuel import problems may seriously risk India’s future economic growth and the global competition for oil products will be also more intensified. Sensitivity analyses for the high growth scenario show that higher constraints for growth in number of ‘passenger cars and freight vehicles’ result in almost equal reduction in CO2 emissions as by higher fuel efficiency of ‘all’ vehicle categories. The combined efforts to reduce number and mileage of these two vehicle types are very critical for reducing not only CO2 emissions but also NOx, PM, SO2 emissions. The potential of renewable energy sources in the transportation sector seems to be small until 2030 (4%-11%). Decoupling of fuel demand and CO2 emission from air pollutant emissions is evident from the scenario results in this work. However, criteria pollutants will grow until 2020. Exhaust PM and SO2 will already decline by 2020 due to increased pressure to improve the air quality in the urban areas. Unless a significant delay or a complete failure of stricter emission regulations will occur, the continuous improvements in emission control technologies will result in very low levels of these emissions by 2030. The level of exhaust PM emissions in the future is very uncertain. The crucial actions in directing the problems of air pollution, energy security, and climate change simultaneously are: speedy introduction and a strict implementation of a series of stringent emission norms; controlling growth in traffic volumes of freight vehicles, motorized two wheelers and passenger cars; enhancing the growth of small vehicles; phasing out traditional two stroke technology in the fleet of motorized two wheelers; and vigorous market penetration of electrical and hybrid vehicles. PM10 and PM2.5 emissions can not be reduced in the future without controlling emissions from non-exhaust sources as well as exhaust PM from tractors.Large uncertainty in non-exhaust PM emissions result from highly uncertain emission factors.