Browsing by Author "González-Nicolás, Ana"

Now showing 1 - 3 of 3

Open Access
Characterization of export regimes in concentration-discharge plots via an advanced time-series model and event-based sampling strategies
(2021) González-Nicolás, Ana; Schwientek, Marc; Sinsbeck, Michael; Nowak, Wolfgang
Currently, the export regime of a catchment is often characterized by the relationship between compound concentration and discharge in the catchment outlet or, more specifically, by the re-gression slope in log-concentrations versus log-discharge plots. However, the scattered points in these plots usually do not follow a plain linear regression representation because of different processes (e.g., hysteresis effects). This work proposes a simple stochastic time-series model for simulating compound concentrations in a river based on river discharge. Our model has an ex-plicit transition parameter that can morph the model between chemostatic behavior and che-modynamic behavior. As opposed to the typically used linear regression approach, our model has an additional parameter to account for hysteresis by including correlation over time. We demonstrate the advantages of our model using a high-frequency data series of nitrate concen-trations collected with in situ analyzers in a catchment in Germany. Furthermore, we identify event-based optimal scheduling rules for sampling strategies. Overall, our results show that (i) our model is much more robust for estimating the export regime than the usually used regres-sion approach, and (ii) sampling strategies based on extreme events (including both high and low discharge rates) are key to reducing the prediction uncertainty of the catchment behavior. Thus, the results of this study can help characterize the export regime of a catchment and manage water pollution in rivers at lower monitoring costs.
Open Access
Pressure management via brine extraction in geological CO2 storage : adaptive optimization strategies under poorly characterized reservoir conditions
(2019) González-Nicolás, Ana; Cihan, Abdullah; Petrusak, Robin; Zhou, Quanlin; Trautz, Robert; Godec, Michael; Birkholzer, Jens T.
Industrial-scale injection of CO2 into the subsurface increases the fluid pressure in the reservoir, which if not properly controlled can potentially lead to geomechanical damage (i.e., fracturing of the caprock or reactivation of faults) and subsequent CO2 leakage. Brine extraction is one approach for managing formation pressure, effective stress, and plume movement in response to CO2 injection. The management of the extracted brine can be expensive (i.e., due to transportation, treatment, disposal, or re-injection), with added cost to the carbon capture and sequestration (CCS); thus, minimizing the volume of extraction brine is of great importance to ensure that the economics of CCS are favorable. The main objective of this study is to demonstrate the use of adaptive optimization methods in the planning of brine extraction and to investigate how the quality of initial site characterization data and the use of newly acquired monitoring data (e.g. pressure at observation wells) impact the optimization performance. We apply an adaptive management approach that integrates monitoring, calibration, and optimization of brine extraction rates to achieve pre-defined pressure constraints. Our results show that reservoir pressure management can be extremely benefited by early and high frequency pressure monitoring during early injection times, especially for poor initial reservoir characterization. Low frequencies of model calibration and optimization with monitoring data may lead to optimization problems, because either pressure buildup constraints are violated or excessively high extraction rates are proposed. The adaptive pressure management approach may constitute an effective tool to manage pressure buildup under uncertain reservoir conditions by minimizing the volumes of extracted brine while controlling pressure buildup.
Open Access
A stochastic framework to optimize monitoring strategies for delineating groundwater divides
(2020) Allgeier, Jonas; González-Nicolás, Ana; Erdal, Daniel; Nowak, Wolfgang; Cirpka, Olaf A.
Surface-water divides can be delineated by analyzing digital elevation models. They might, however, significantly differ from groundwater divides because the groundwater surface does not necessarily follow the surface topography. Thus, in order to delineate a groundwater divide, hydraulic-head measurements are needed. Because installing piezometers is cost- and labor-intensive, it is vital to optimize their placement. In this work, we introduce an optimal design analysis that can identify the best spatial configuration of piezometers. The method is based on formal minimization of the expected posterior uncertainty in localizing the groundwater divide. It is based on the preposterior data impact assessor, a Bayesian framework that uses a random sample of models (here: steady-state groundwater flow models) in a fully non-linear analysis. For each realization, we compute virtual hydraulic-head measurements at all potential well installation points and delineate the groundwater divide by particle tracking. Then, for each set of virtual measurements and their possible measurement values, we assess the uncertainty of the groundwater-divide location after Bayesian updating, and finally marginalize over all possible measurement values. We test the method mimicking an aquifer in South-West Germany. Previous works in this aquifer indicated a groundwater divide that substantially differs from the surface-water divide. Our analysis shows that the uncertainty in the localization of the groundwater divide can be reduced with each additional monitoring well. In our case study, the optimal configuration of three monitoring points involves the first well being close to the topographic surface water divide, the second one on the hillslope toward the valley, and the third one in between.