Browsing by Author "Hauser, Wolfgang"

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Open Access
Analysis and agent-based modelling of lifestyle aspects influencing the residential energy demand in France and Germany
(2013) Hauser, Wolfgang; Renn, Ortwin (Prof. Dr. Dr. h.c.)
This captures differences in energy relevant behavior of households and analyzes the impact of sociodemographic variables and lifestyle aspects on it. Towards this aim, a standardized postal-survey has been conducted in France (Lyon) and Germany (Stuttgart) in order to collect data about lifestyle, socioeco- nomic conditions, the type and age of the building one lives in, and the levels of provision with different household-appliances, as well as their usage. Besides the statistical analysis, this data has been used to parametrize an agent-based model of energy relevant household behavior which has been developed in the run of this project and produces simulated household load-curves. This approach has been chosen, because the provision of electricity in an AC-grid demands the matching of demand and supply at all times in order to keep the frequency constant; the timely resolution of the statistical analysis is therefore too grainy for engineering needs. The resulting load-curves showed that the differences between households grouped by sociodemographic variables are mainly in regard to the height of the load-curve - and thus concerning only the amount of electricity consumed over the day - while households grouped by lifestyle variables tend to differ more in regard to the overall shape of the load curve - and thus show differences in the distribution of electricity demand over the hours of the day.
Open Access
Context scenarios of the German Energy Transition : a data collection for the analysis of the socio-political framework of a socio-technical transformation
(2020) Weimer-Jehle, Wolfgang; Prehofer, Sigrid; Hauser, Wolfgang; Bräutigam, Klaus-Rainer (Translator); Buchgeister, Jens (Translator); Kopfmüller, Jürgen (Translator)
An expert survey about the socio-technical context of the German Energy Transformation is described and selected results are reported. Major socio-technical drivers of the energy system and its evolution were identified, alternative futures for each driver were derived based on literature review and expert questioning. Using the framework of Cross-Impact Balance Analysis, the interrelations between the possible futures of the drivers were estimated by a series of expert interviews.
Open Access
Integrated multidimensional sustainability assessment of energy system transformation pathways
(2021) Naegler, Tobias; Becker, Lisa; Buchgeister, Jens; Hauser, Wolfgang; Hottenroth, Heidi; Junne, Tobias; Lehr, Ulrike; Scheel, Oliver; Schmidt-Scheele, Ricarda; Simon, Sonja; Sutardhio, Claudia; Tietze, Ingela; Ulrich, Philip; Viere, Tobias; Weidlich, Anke
Sustainable development embraces a broad spectrum of social, economic and ecological aspects. Thus, a sustainable transformation process of energy systems is inevitably multidimensional and needs to go beyond climate impact and cost considerations. An approach for an integrated and interdisciplinary sustainability assessment of energy system transformation pathways is presented here. It first integrates energy system modeling with a multidimensional impact assessment that focuses on life cycle-based environmental and macroeconomic impacts. Then, stakeholders’ preferences with respect to defined sustainability indicators are inquired, which are finally integrated into a comparative scenario evaluation through a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA), all in one consistent assessment framework. As an illustrative example, this holistic approach is applied to the sustainability assessment of ten different transformation strategies for Germany. Applying multi-criteria decision analysis reveals that both ambitious (80%) and highly ambitious (95%) carbon reduction scenarios can achieve top sustainability ranks, depending on the underlying energy transformation pathways and respective scores in other sustainability dimensions. Furthermore, this research highlights an increasingly dominant contribution of energy systems’ upstream chains on total environmental impacts, reveals rather small differences in macroeconomic effects between different scenarios and identifies the transition among societal segments and climate impact minimization as the most important stakeholder preferences.
Open Access
Kontextszenarien der deutschen Energiewende : eine Datenerhebung zur Analyse gesellschaftlich-politischer Rahmenbedingungen einer sozio-technischen Transformation
(2015) Weimer-Jehle, Wolfgang; Prehofer, Sigrid; Hauser, Wolfgang
Dieser Bericht beschreibt eine Expertenerhebung zum sozio-technischen Kontext der deutschen Energiewende und stellt ausgewählte Ergebnisse vor. Wesentliche sozio-technische Treiber des Energiesystems und dessen Entwicklung wurden identifiziert sowie alternative Zukünfte für jeden Treiber auf Basis von Literaturanalyse und Expertenbefragungen abgeleitet. Die wechselseitigen Beziehungen zwischen den möglichen Zukünften der Treiber wurden in einer Reihe von Experteninterviews unter Verwendung der Cross-Impact Bilanz Analyse abgeschätzt. Eine vorläufige Evaluation der Rohdaten ergab insgesamt 565 konsistente Kontextszenarien. Bevor jedoch endgültige Ergebnisse abgeleitet werden können, ist eine weitere Konsolidierung der Daten notwendig.
Open Access
Socio-technical energy scenarios : state-of-the-art and CIB-based approaches
(2020) Weimer-Jehle, Wolfgang; Vögele, Stefan; Hauser, Wolfgang; Kosow, Hannah; Poganietz, Witold-Roger; Prehofer, Sigrid
Energy conversion is a major source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and energy transition scenarios are a key tool for gaining a greater understanding of the possible pathways toward climate protection. There is consensus in energy research that political and societal framework conditions will play a pivotal role in shaping energy transitions. In energy scenario construction, this perspective is increasingly acknowledged through the approach of informing model-based energy analysis with storylines about societal futures, an exercise we call “socio-technical energy scenario construction” in this article. However, there is a dispute about how to construct the storylines in a traceable, consistent, comprehensive, and reproducible way. This study aims to support energy researchers considering the use of the concept of socio-technical scenarios in two ways: first, we provide a state-of-the-art analysis of socio-technical energy scenario construction by comparing 16 studies with respect to five categories. Second, we address the dispute regarding storyline construction in energy research and examine 13 reports using the Cross-Impact Balances method. We collated researcher statements on the strengths and challenges of this method and identified seven categories of promises and challenges each.
Open Access
Sustainability assessments of energy scenarios : citizens’ preferences for and assessments of sustainability indicators
(2022) Schmidt-Scheele, Ricarda; Hauser, Wolfgang; Scheel, Oliver; Minn, Fabienne; Becker, Lisa; Buchgeister, Jens; Hottenroth, Heidi; Junne, Tobias; Lehr, Ulrike; Naegler, Tobias; Simon, Sonja; Sutardhio, Claudia; Tietze, Ingela; Ulrich, Philip; Viere, Tobias; Weidlich, Anke
Background: Given the multitude of scenarios on the future of our energy systems, multi-criteria assessments are increasingly called for to analyze and assess desired and undesired effects of possible pathways with regard to their environmental, economic and social sustainability. Existing studies apply elaborate lists of sustainability indicators, yet these indicators are defined and selected by experts and the relative importance of each indicator for the overall sustainability assessments is either determined by experts or is computed using mathematical functions. Target group-specific empirical data regarding citizens’ preferences for sustainability indicators as well as their reasoning behind their choices are not included in existing assessments.
Approach and results: We argue that citizens’ preferences and values need to be more systematically analyzed. Next to valid and reliable data regarding diverse sets of indicators, reflections and deliberations are needed regarding what different societal actors, including citizens, consider as justified and legitimate interventions in nature and society, and what considerations they include in their own assessments. For this purpose, we present results from a discrete choice experiment. The method originated in marketing and is currently becoming a popular means to systematically analyze individuals’ preference structures for energy technology assessments. As we show in our paper, it can be fruitfully applied to study citizens’ values and weightings with regard to sustainability issues. Additionally, we present findings from six focus groups that unveil the reasons behind citizens’ preferences and choices.
Conclusions: Our combined empirical methods provide main insights with strong implications for the future development and assessment of energy pathways: while environmental and climate-related effects significantly influenced citizens’ preferences for or against certain energy pathways, total systems and production costs were of far less importance to citizens than the public discourse suggests. Many scenario studies seek to optimize pathways according to total systems costs. In contrast, our findings show that the role of fairness and distributional justice in transition processes featured as a dominant theme for citizens. This adds central dimensions for future multi-criteria assessments that, so far, have been neglected by current energy systems models.
Open Access
SyKonaS - Projektbericht. Nr. 5, Systemische Analyse der Wechselwirkungen zwischen Konfliktlinien und Rahmenbedingungen der Energiewende: Weiterentwicklung soziotechnischer Energieszenarien
(Stuttgart : Verbundvorhaben SyKonaS, Zentrum für interdisziplinäre Risiko- und Innovationsforschung der Universität Stuttgart (ZIRIUS), 2024) Hauser, Wolfgang; Wassermann, Sandra; Oviedo, Patricia; León, Christian D.; Weimer-Jehle, Wolfgang; Jaschek, Carolin (Mitwirkende); Prehofer, Sigrid (Mitwirkende)
Im Teilvorhaben SyKonaS/iKonS („Systemische Konfliktanalyse mittels Szenariotechnik“) wurden die technoökonomischen Szenarien um soziale Größen ergänzt und zu soziotechnischen Szenarien weiterentwickelt, um ihre jeweilige Konflikthaftigkeit abzuschätzen. Hierfür wurden zwölf durch die technoökonomischen Energieszenarien vorgegebene Größen (wie z.B. die installierte Leistung von Wind onshore im Jahr 2050) und ihre Wirkungen auf zwölf sozio-politische Größen abgeschätzt. Ebenso wurden die Interdependenzen der soziopolitischen Größen erhoben. Es wurde dann die Frage gestellt, welche Konflikte von den verschiedenen Energieszenarien und ihren gesellschaftlichen Wirkungen ausgelöst werden können.
Open Access
Uncharted water conflicts ahead : mapping the scenario space for Germany in the year 2050
(2024) Kosow, Hannah; Brauner, Simon; Brumme, Anja; Hauser, Wolfgang; Hölzlberger, Fabian; Moschner, Janina; Rübbelke, Dirk; Vögele, Stefan; Weimer-Jehle, Wolfgang
Introduction: In recent years, conflicts surrounding the use, distribution, and governance of surface water and groundwater in Germany have gained prominence in the media, on the political agenda, and in research. Increasing effects of climate change, such as heatwaves and drought but also extreme rain events and flooding, are considered to become more prominent and pressing in the future by different societal actors. However, it remains highly uncertain if and what type of conflicts related to water quantity Germany might actually face in the future (and how they will be framed). This paper addresses one dimension of this uncertainty - namely the future context uncertainty of possible resource and water governance conflicts. Our research contributes to an improved understanding of the uncertainty concerning future climatic, natural, land use related, political, economic, and other societal contexts that could impact water conflicts. Method: We ask: What are possible coherent context scenarios for Germany in the year 2050, and how are they expected to influence future water conflicts? In an expert-based process, we apply a qualitative and systematic method of systems analysis, cross-impact balances (CIB). With CIB, we build internally consistent scenarios of possible futures and map the future scenario space. Results and discussion: Diversity mapping with a new CIB web application of the ScenarioWizard reveals that the scenario space is rather large and diverse. The identified scenario space of n = 355 internally consistent scenarios spans four most diverse scenarios “Polycrisis,” “Economy and agriculture in crisis,” “Growth through adaptation to climate change,” and “Sustainable transformation.” Depending on the development of future contexts, the risk for future water resource and governance conflicts may unfold in various ways. We conclude that our scenario analysis provides a useful base for research and practice to address the context uncertainty of water conflicts in Germany. Our results can be used for risk assessment, to define societal framework assumptions for societal-hydrological modeling, and to develop robust and adaptive strategies and policies.