Browsing by Author "Junne, Tobias"

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Open Access
Constructing and evaluating energy futures : life cycle environmental impacts, material demand and transparency of energy scenarios
(2021) Junne, Tobias; Thess, André (Prof. Dr. rer. nat.)
The transformation of the energy system potentially contributes to a number of environmental challenges and is associated with high material use. Therefore, when analyzing future energy systems, it is necessary to quantify environmental impacts and material requirements in order to maintain ecosystem functionality and identify potential material bottlenecks of transformation strategies. However, planning and transforming the energy system while quantifying impacts on natural and human systems and material requirements is a difficult task with many dimensions and complex dynamics. Therefore, sound conclusions can only be made using a transdisciplinary approach and multiple numerical models.In this work, analytical modeling approaches are developed for environmental assessment and for quantifying the abiotic resource requirements of future energy systems. The first modeling approach quantifies environmental indicators using the life cycle assessment (LCA) method. The second modeling approach quantifies material requirements using material flow analysis (MFA). These methods are then combined with energy system models (ESMs) and energy scenarios to gain insight into the environmental co-benefits and negative side-effects of the energy transition and to assess the pressure on the abiotic resource supply system.
Open Access
Integrated multidimensional sustainability assessment of energy system transformation pathways
(2021) Naegler, Tobias; Becker, Lisa; Buchgeister, Jens; Hauser, Wolfgang; Hottenroth, Heidi; Junne, Tobias; Lehr, Ulrike; Scheel, Oliver; Schmidt-Scheele, Ricarda; Simon, Sonja; Sutardhio, Claudia; Tietze, Ingela; Ulrich, Philip; Viere, Tobias; Weidlich, Anke
Sustainable development embraces a broad spectrum of social, economic and ecological aspects. Thus, a sustainable transformation process of energy systems is inevitably multidimensional and needs to go beyond climate impact and cost considerations. An approach for an integrated and interdisciplinary sustainability assessment of energy system transformation pathways is presented here. It first integrates energy system modeling with a multidimensional impact assessment that focuses on life cycle-based environmental and macroeconomic impacts. Then, stakeholders’ preferences with respect to defined sustainability indicators are inquired, which are finally integrated into a comparative scenario evaluation through a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA), all in one consistent assessment framework. As an illustrative example, this holistic approach is applied to the sustainability assessment of ten different transformation strategies for Germany. Applying multi-criteria decision analysis reveals that both ambitious (80%) and highly ambitious (95%) carbon reduction scenarios can achieve top sustainability ranks, depending on the underlying energy transformation pathways and respective scores in other sustainability dimensions. Furthermore, this research highlights an increasingly dominant contribution of energy systems’ upstream chains on total environmental impacts, reveals rather small differences in macroeconomic effects between different scenarios and identifies the transition among societal segments and climate impact minimization as the most important stakeholder preferences.
Open Access
Sustainability assessments of energy scenarios : citizens’ preferences for and assessments of sustainability indicators
(2022) Schmidt-Scheele, Ricarda; Hauser, Wolfgang; Scheel, Oliver; Minn, Fabienne; Becker, Lisa; Buchgeister, Jens; Hottenroth, Heidi; Junne, Tobias; Lehr, Ulrike; Naegler, Tobias; Simon, Sonja; Sutardhio, Claudia; Tietze, Ingela; Ulrich, Philip; Viere, Tobias; Weidlich, Anke
Background: Given the multitude of scenarios on the future of our energy systems, multi-criteria assessments are increasingly called for to analyze and assess desired and undesired effects of possible pathways with regard to their environmental, economic and social sustainability. Existing studies apply elaborate lists of sustainability indicators, yet these indicators are defined and selected by experts and the relative importance of each indicator for the overall sustainability assessments is either determined by experts or is computed using mathematical functions. Target group-specific empirical data regarding citizens’ preferences for sustainability indicators as well as their reasoning behind their choices are not included in existing assessments.
Approach and results: We argue that citizens’ preferences and values need to be more systematically analyzed. Next to valid and reliable data regarding diverse sets of indicators, reflections and deliberations are needed regarding what different societal actors, including citizens, consider as justified and legitimate interventions in nature and society, and what considerations they include in their own assessments. For this purpose, we present results from a discrete choice experiment. The method originated in marketing and is currently becoming a popular means to systematically analyze individuals’ preference structures for energy technology assessments. As we show in our paper, it can be fruitfully applied to study citizens’ values and weightings with regard to sustainability issues. Additionally, we present findings from six focus groups that unveil the reasons behind citizens’ preferences and choices.
Conclusions: Our combined empirical methods provide main insights with strong implications for the future development and assessment of energy pathways: while environmental and climate-related effects significantly influenced citizens’ preferences for or against certain energy pathways, total systems and production costs were of far less importance to citizens than the public discourse suggests. Many scenario studies seek to optimize pathways according to total systems costs. In contrast, our findings show that the role of fairness and distributional justice in transition processes featured as a dominant theme for citizens. This adds central dimensions for future multi-criteria assessments that, so far, have been neglected by current energy systems models.