Browsing by Author "Kjellgren, Stina"

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Open Access
Chance at foresight - risk of misuse? : an empirical study of scenario simulation for natural hazard risk management
(2016) Kjellgren, Stina; Renn, Ortwin (Prof. Dr.)
For the past few decades, the losses caused by natural catastrophes have risen continuously. Though changing hazard frequencies may explain some of this, it cannot be neglected that human and social drivers play a role too; hence, the importance of effective management strategies. A problem in this regard concerns that it is often difficult to get decision-makers to prioritize preparedness planning and risk management measures in times of calm, meaning that it is often not until disaster has already hit that necessary reforms are being implemented. In theory, the possibility to simulate the likely outcomes of one or more natural hazard scenarios represents a promising prospect for change in this respect. By showing the consequences of being hit while there is still time to act, simulations - so it is proposed - will motivate decision-makers to take relevant steps and measures in foresight rather than in hindsight. At the same time, all models are simplifications of reality, meaning that all output will be associated with intrinsic uncertainties and predictive limitations. In this regard, it is often pointed to as a risk factor that actors in policy and practice without specific expertise in the field of modeling and simulation (so called ‘non-experts’) may nevertheless expect these to deliver certain research results in line with what has been achieved in relation to invariant natural phenomena in the hypothetico-deductive science tradition. While hazard maps and other forms of simulation-based hazard assessments can allow for better planning and decision-making, then, there is also the risk of them not being used or - perhaps even worse - of them being misused. This thesis explores how simulation-based information about the likely consequences of natural hazard scenarios are responded to and used by non-experts responsible for directing and managing the communal risk response. It focuses on flood hazard maps produced in the German state of Baden-Württemberg, but also touches upon alpine hazard simulations produced in Austria.
Open Access
Exploring local risk managers' use of flood hazard maps for risk communication purposes in Baden-Württemberg
(2013) Kjellgren, Stina
In response to the EU Floods Directive (2007/60/EC), flood hazard maps are currently produced all over Europe, reflecting a wider shift in focus from "flood protection" to "risk management", for which not only public authorities but also populations at risk are seen as responsible. By providing a visual image of the foreseen consequences of flooding, flood hazard maps can enhance people's knowledge about flood risk, making them more capable of an adequate response. Current literature, however, questions the maps' awareness raising capacity, arguing that their content and design are rarely adjusted to laypeople's needs. This paper wants to complement this perspective with a focus on risk communication by studying how these tools are disseminated and marketed to the public in the first place. Judging from communication theory, simply making hazard maps publicly available is unlikely to lead to attitudinal or behavioral effects, since this typically requires two-way communication and material or symbolic incentives. Consequently, it is relevant to investigate whether and how local risk managers, who are well positioned to interact with the local population, make use of flood hazard maps for risk communication purposes. A qualitative case study of this issue in the German state of Baden-Württemberg suggests that many municipalities lack a clear strategy for using this new information tool for hazard and risk communication. Four barriers in this regard are identified: perceived disinterest/sufficient awareness on behalf of the population at risk; unwillingness to cause worry or distress; lack of skills and resources; and insufficient support. These barriers are important to address – in research as well as in practice – since it is only if flood hazard maps are used to enhance local knowledge resources that they can be expected to contribute to social capacity building.