Browsing by Author "Prehofer, Sigrid"

Now showing 1 - 6 of 6

Open Access
Context scenarios of the German Energy Transition : a data collection for the analysis of the socio-political framework of a socio-technical transformation
(2020) Weimer-Jehle, Wolfgang; Prehofer, Sigrid; Hauser, Wolfgang; Bräutigam, Klaus-Rainer (Translator); Buchgeister, Jens (Translator); Kopfmüller, Jürgen (Translator)
An expert survey about the socio-technical context of the German Energy Transformation is described and selected results are reported. Major socio-technical drivers of the energy system and its evolution were identified, alternative futures for each driver were derived based on literature review and expert questioning. Using the framework of Cross-Impact Balance Analysis, the interrelations between the possible futures of the drivers were estimated by a series of expert interviews.
Open Access
Kontextszenarien der deutschen Energiewende : eine Datenerhebung zur Analyse gesellschaftlich-politischer Rahmenbedingungen einer sozio-technischen Transformation
(2015) Weimer-Jehle, Wolfgang; Prehofer, Sigrid; Hauser, Wolfgang
Dieser Bericht beschreibt eine Expertenerhebung zum sozio-technischen Kontext der deutschen Energiewende und stellt ausgewählte Ergebnisse vor. Wesentliche sozio-technische Treiber des Energiesystems und dessen Entwicklung wurden identifiziert sowie alternative Zukünfte für jeden Treiber auf Basis von Literaturanalyse und Expertenbefragungen abgeleitet. Die wechselseitigen Beziehungen zwischen den möglichen Zukünften der Treiber wurden in einer Reihe von Experteninterviews unter Verwendung der Cross-Impact Bilanz Analyse abgeschätzt. Eine vorläufige Evaluation der Rohdaten ergab insgesamt 565 konsistente Kontextszenarien. Bevor jedoch endgültige Ergebnisse abgeleitet werden können, ist eine weitere Konsolidierung der Daten notwendig.
Open Access
Linking qualitative scenarios with quantitative energy models: knowledge integration in different methodological designs
(2021) Prehofer, Sigrid; Kosow, Hannah; Naegler, Tobias; Pregger, Thomas; Vögele, Stefan; Weimer-Jehle, Wolfgang
Linking qualitative scenarios with quantitative models is a common approach to integrate assumptions on possible future societal contexts into modeling. But reflection on how and to what degree knowledge is effectively integrated during this endeavor does not generally take place. In this paper, we reflect on the performance of a specific hybrid scenario approach (qualitative Cross-Impact Balance analysis, CIB, linked with quantitative energy models) concerning knowledge integration through eleven different process steps. In order to guide the scenario community in applying this approach, we reflect on general methodological features as well as different design options. We conceptualize different forms of interdisciplinary knowledge integration (compiling, combining and synthesizing) and analyze how and to what degree knowledge about society and uncertainty are integrated into scenario process and products. In addition, we discuss trade-offs regarding design choices and forms of knowledge integration. On the basis of three case studies we identify two general designs of linking which build on each other (basic and extended design) and which differ in essence regarding the balance of power between the CIB and the energy modeling. Ex-post assessment of the form of interdisciplinary knowledge integration in each step revealed that specific method properties of CIB as well as the interaction with additional quantitative as well as specific qualitative methods foster distinct forms of knowledge integration. The specific roles assigned to CIB in the hybrid scenario process can also influence the form of knowledge integration. In this study, we use a joint process scheme linking qualitative context scenarios with energy modeling. By applying our conceptualization of different forms of knowledge integration we analyze the designs´ respective potential for and respective effects on knowledge integration. Consequently, our findings can give guidance to those who are designing their own hybrid scenario processes. As this is an explorative study, it would be useful to further test our hypotheses in different hybrid scenario designs. Finally, we note that at some points in the process a more precise differentiation of three forms of knowledge integration would have been useful and propose to further differentiate and detail them in future research.
Open Access
Socio-technical energy scenarios : state-of-the-art and CIB-based approaches
(2020) Weimer-Jehle, Wolfgang; Vögele, Stefan; Hauser, Wolfgang; Kosow, Hannah; Poganietz, Witold-Roger; Prehofer, Sigrid
Energy conversion is a major source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and energy transition scenarios are a key tool for gaining a greater understanding of the possible pathways toward climate protection. There is consensus in energy research that political and societal framework conditions will play a pivotal role in shaping energy transitions. In energy scenario construction, this perspective is increasingly acknowledged through the approach of informing model-based energy analysis with storylines about societal futures, an exercise we call “socio-technical energy scenario construction” in this article. However, there is a dispute about how to construct the storylines in a traceable, consistent, comprehensive, and reproducible way. This study aims to support energy researchers considering the use of the concept of socio-technical scenarios in two ways: first, we provide a state-of-the-art analysis of socio-technical energy scenario construction by comparing 16 studies with respect to five categories. Second, we address the dispute regarding storyline construction in energy research and examine 13 reports using the Cross-Impact Balances method. We collated researcher statements on the strengths and challenges of this method and identified seven categories of promises and challenges each.
Open Access
SyKonaS - Projektbericht. Nr. 3, Abschätzung gesellschaftlicher Konflikte in Energieszenarien
(Stuttgart : Verbundvorhaben SyKonaS, Zentrum für interdisziplinäre Risiko- und Innovationsforschung der Universität Stuttgart (ZIRIUS), 2023) Püttner, Andreas; Liebhart, Laura; Wolf, Patrick; León, Christian D.; Prehofer, Sigrid; Wassermann, Sandra; Jaschek, Carolin (Mitwirkende)
Das Forschungsprojekt "SyKonaS: Systemische Konfliktanalyse mittels Szenariotechnik" hat zum Ziel, gesell-schaftliche Konflikte und deren Wechselwirkungen in der Energiewende zu verstehen, zu antizipieren und Lösungsvorschläge zu entwickeln. Ein Teil des Projekts setzt sich mit der Identifikation, Analyse und Bewertung (potenzieller) Konfliktthemen und deren Konflikthaftigkeit auseinander, die mit der Realisierung von Ausbaupfaden in Energiewendeszenarien verbunden sind. Hierbei steht insbesondere die Analyse ausgewählter Energiewendeszenarien hinsichtlich der zu erwartenden Konflikte im Vordergrund.
Open Access
Teaching power-sector models social and political awareness
(2022) Garcia-Teruel, Anna; Scholz, Yvonne; Weimer-Jehle, Wolfgang; Prehofer, Sigrid; Cao, Karl-Kiên; Borggrefe, Frieder
Energy-system scenarios are widely used to relate the developments of the energy supply and the resulting carbon-emission pathways to political measures. To enable scenario analyses that adequately capture the variability of renewable-energy resources, a specialised type of power-sector model (PSM) has been developed since the beginning of this century, which uses input data with hourly resolution at the national or subnational levels. These models focus on techno-economic-system optimisation, which needs to be complemented with expert socioeconomic knowledge in order to prevent solutions that may be socially inacceptable or that oppose political goals. A way to integrate such knowledge into energy-system analysis is to use information from framework scenarios with a suitable geographical and technological focus. We propose a novel methodology to link framework scenarios to a PSM by applying complexity-management methods that enable a flexible choice of base scenarios that are tailored to suit different research questions. We explain the methodology, and we illustrate it in a case study that analyses the influence of the socioeconomic development on the European power-system transition until 2050 by linking the power-sector model, REMix (renewable-energy mix), to regional framework scenarios. The suggested approach proves suitable for this purpose, and it enables a clearer link between the impact of political measures and the power-system development.