Browsing by Author "Thwe, Than Than"

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    Regionalised population forecast for the Union of Myanmar
    (2004) Thwe, Than Than; Treuner, Peter (Prof. Dr. sc. pol.)
    The objective of the study is to improve the quality of the foundations for preparing regional planning decisions by providing quantitative and qualitative regionalised population forecasts for Myanmar, because regional planning is always related to the future. Regional planners must have the information not only about the present population but also about future development of population volumes and structures in order to plan for the infrastructure demand and other demands. Therefore, the forecasting must consider the age group and gender structure of the population. In Myanmar, the official demographic forecasting is generally formulated in terms of overall growth rates of growth using as an exponential method without consideration of age groups of the population in regional planning. Therefore these forecasts are not very useful for regional planning. The population forecast of this study considers the main aspects of demographic change - fertility, mortality and migration of the formulating demographic development process. In the frame of the study available software for population forecasting has been tested whether it is suitable for an application in the special case of Myanmar. The examined population models showed some weaknesses, especially in the field of migration. Therefore a method for a regionalised population forecast in the Union of Myanmar has been developed. The developed method is adapted to the special situation of Myanmar. The population model has a modular structure. The natural population development is considered in model by a cohort component method which allows to describe the three aspects of natural population development i.e births, deaths and aging. The method also allows to calculate different scenarios to compare the changes of age structure of the cohort component. The migration model only considers the internal migrants between 20 spatial units in Myanmar because there is no available information for the international migrants and obviously the numbers of international migrants are very small. It also does not take into account migration within the spatial units. It uses an explanatory approach that starts from the hypothesis that migration depends on the population volume in the source and the destination and the distance between spatial units. A Life Time Migration survey showed that people moved to the developed regions that means, the economic factors are very strong influence on migration which should be considered one of the attractiveness parameters in the migration model. Therefore the migration model becomes a combination of attractiveness and the gravity approach. The study is based on the year 2000 and it focuses the spatial units' population by three scenarios up to the year 2020. According to the results of the three scenarios, the Union's population will increase to 71.68 or 72.25 millions by the year 2020. There differences are on the level of the Union not significant but the corresponding results for the 20 spatial units' populations differ in a high degree. In future the proposed model can be improved if additional data are available.