Global hydrogen and synfuel exchanges in an emission-free energy system

Abstract

This study investigates the global allocation of hydrogen and synfuels in order to achieve the well below 2 °C, preferably 1.5 °C target set in the Paris Agreement. For this purpose, TIMES Integrated Assessment Model (TIAM), a global energy system model is used. In order to investigate global hydrogen and synfuel flows, cost potential curves are aggregated and implemented into TIAM, as well as demand technologies for the end use sectors. Furthermore, hydrogen and synfuel trades are established using liquid hydrogen transport (LH2), and both new and existing technologies for synfuels are implemented. To represent a wide range of possible future events, four different scenarios are considered with different characteristics of climate and security of supply policies. The results show that in the case of climate policy, the renewable energies need tremendous expansion. The final energy consumption is shifting towards the direct use of electricity, while certain demand technologies (e.g., aviation and international shipping) require hydrogen and synfuels for full decarbonization. Due to different security of supply policies, the global allocation of hydrogen and synfuel production and exports is shifting, while the 1.5 °C target remains feasible in the different climate policy scenarios. Considering climate policy, Middle East Asia is the preferred region for hydrogen export. For synfuel production, several regions are competitive, including Middle East Asia, Mexico, Africa, South America and Australia. In the case of security of supply policies, Middle East Asia is sharing the export volume with Africa, while only minor changes can be seen in the synfuel supply.