How much photovoltaic efficiency is enough?

Abstract

At present, the purchasing prices for silicon-based photovoltaic modules with 20% efficiency and more are between 20 and 40 EURct/Wp. These numbers correspond to 40 to 80 EUR/m2 and are in the same range as the mounting costs (material prices plus salaries) of such modules. Installers and operators of photovoltaic systems carefully balance the module and mounting costs when deciding among modules of different efficiencies. This contribution emulates the installer’s decision via a simple, analytical module mounting decision (Mo2De) model. A priori, the model, and the resulting conclusions are completely independent of the photovoltaically active material inside the modules. De facto, however, based on the present state (cost, efficiency, reliability, bankability, etc.) of modules fabricated from (single) crystalline Si cells, conclusions on other photovoltaic materials might also be drawn: On the one hand, the model suggests that lower-efficiency modules with efficiencies below 20% will be driven out of the market. Keeping in mind their installation costs, installers will ask for large discounts for lower-efficiency modules. Technologies based on organic semiconductors, CdTe, CIGS, and even multicrystalline Si, might not survive in the utility market, or in industrial and residential applications. Moreover, this 20% mark will soon reach 23%, and finally will stop at around 25% for the very best, large-area (square meter sized) commercial modules based on single crystalline silicon only. On the other hand, it also seems difficult for future higher-efficiency modules based on tandem/triple cells to compete with standard Si-based reference modules. Compared to their expected higher efficiency, the production costs of tandem/triple cell modules and, therefore, also their required markup in sales, might be too high. Depending on the mounting cost, the Mo2De-model predicts acceptable markup values of 1 EURct/Wp (for low mounting costs of around 10 EUR/m2) to 11 EURct/Wp (for high mounting costs of 100 EUR/m2) if the module efficiency increases from 23% to 30%. Therefore, a 23% to 24% module efficiency, which is possible with silicon cells alone, might be enough for many terrestrial photovoltaic applications.