Adaptation after extreme flooding events : moving or staying? The case of the Ahr Valley in Germany

Abstract

More than 130 lives were lost in the 2021 heavy precipitation and flood event in the Ahr Valley, Germany, where large parts of the valley were destroyed. Afterwards, public funding of about 15 billion Euros has been made available for reconstruction. However, with people and settlements being in highly exposed zones, the core question that is not sufficiently addressed is whether affected people want to rebuild in the same place, or rather opt to move out. The paper explores this question and assesses motivations and reasons for moving or staying in the Ahr Valley. For this purpose, a household survey was conducted focusing on 516 flood-affected households. The collected data was analyzed using descriptive and inferential statistics. The results revealed that the ownership of the house or flat significantly influenced the decision of whether to stay or to leave. In addition, an attachment to the place and the belief that such extreme events occur very rarely influenced the decision to stay and rebuild. Age, gender and household income barely influenced the decision to stay or to move to a new place. Interestingly, results demonstrated that many respondents view settlement retreat and the relocation of critical infrastructures as important options to reduce risk, however, many still rebuild in the same place. These insights enable local policy and practice to better address the needs of the population in terms of whether to stay or move after such an extreme disaster.