11 Interfakultäre Einrichtungen
Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://elib.uni-stuttgart.de/handle/11682/12
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Item Open Access Linking qualitative scenarios with quantitative energy models: knowledge integration in different methodological designs(2021) Prehofer, Sigrid; Kosow, Hannah; Naegler, Tobias; Pregger, Thomas; Vögele, Stefan; Weimer-Jehle, WolfgangLinking qualitative scenarios with quantitative models is a common approach to integrate assumptions on possible future societal contexts into modeling. But reflection on how and to what degree knowledge is effectively integrated during this endeavor does not generally take place. In this paper, we reflect on the performance of a specific hybrid scenario approach (qualitative Cross-Impact Balance analysis, CIB, linked with quantitative energy models) concerning knowledge integration through eleven different process steps. In order to guide the scenario community in applying this approach, we reflect on general methodological features as well as different design options. We conceptualize different forms of interdisciplinary knowledge integration (compiling, combining and synthesizing) and analyze how and to what degree knowledge about society and uncertainty are integrated into scenario process and products. In addition, we discuss trade-offs regarding design choices and forms of knowledge integration. On the basis of three case studies we identify two general designs of linking which build on each other (basic and extended design) and which differ in essence regarding the balance of power between the CIB and the energy modeling. Ex-post assessment of the form of interdisciplinary knowledge integration in each step revealed that specific method properties of CIB as well as the interaction with additional quantitative as well as specific qualitative methods foster distinct forms of knowledge integration. The specific roles assigned to CIB in the hybrid scenario process can also influence the form of knowledge integration. In this study, we use a joint process scheme linking qualitative context scenarios with energy modeling. By applying our conceptualization of different forms of knowledge integration we analyze the designs´ respective potential for and respective effects on knowledge integration. Consequently, our findings can give guidance to those who are designing their own hybrid scenario processes. As this is an explorative study, it would be useful to further test our hypotheses in different hybrid scenario designs. Finally, we note that at some points in the process a more precise differentiation of three forms of knowledge integration would have been useful and propose to further differentiate and detail them in future research.Item Open Access Socio-technical energy scenarios : state-of-the-art and CIB-based approaches(2020) Weimer-Jehle, Wolfgang; Vögele, Stefan; Hauser, Wolfgang; Kosow, Hannah; Poganietz, Witold-Roger; Prehofer, SigridEnergy conversion is a major source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and energy transition scenarios are a key tool for gaining a greater understanding of the possible pathways toward climate protection. There is consensus in energy research that political and societal framework conditions will play a pivotal role in shaping energy transitions. In energy scenario construction, this perspective is increasingly acknowledged through the approach of informing model-based energy analysis with storylines about societal futures, an exercise we call “socio-technical energy scenario construction” in this article. However, there is a dispute about how to construct the storylines in a traceable, consistent, comprehensive, and reproducible way. This study aims to support energy researchers considering the use of the concept of socio-technical scenarios in two ways: first, we provide a state-of-the-art analysis of socio-technical energy scenario construction by comparing 16 studies with respect to five categories. Second, we address the dispute regarding storyline construction in energy research and examine 13 reports using the Cross-Impact Balances method. We collated researcher statements on the strengths and challenges of this method and identified seven categories of promises and challenges each.Item Open Access Leitfaden für Konzeption, Aufbau und Betrieb von Schulungs- und Pilotanlagen zur Aufbereitung von Trinkwasser und Reinigung von Abwasser aus einer sozio-technischen Perspektive(2021) Minn, Fabienne; Hügler, Michael; Kosow, Hannah; Kramer, Hanna; Krauß, Manuel; León, Christian D.; Stauder, Stefan; Wasielewski, StephanDieser Leitfaden soll Hilfestellung bei der Konzeption, dem Aufbau und dem Betrieb von Schulungs- und Pilotanlagen geben, die im öffentlichen Raum implementiert werden. Solche Pilotanlagen erfordern von Beginn an eine soziale Einbettung und sollten daher in einem partizipativen Prozess in enger Kooperation mit den lokalen Akteuren entwickelt und umgesetzt werden. Der Leitfaden folgt den Phasen des Anlagenbaus, wobei Info-Boxen die Inhalte an einem Fallbeispiel aus der Praxis illustrieren. Dabei gibt der Leitfaden praktische Hinweise und Tipps für die partizipative Umsetzung von Pilotanlagen sowie für die Durchführung begleitender Aktivitäten zur Bewusstseinsbildung und dem Aufbau von Kompetenzen. Der vorliegende Leitfaden ist ein Ergebnis des Forschungsprojektes TRUST, das von 2017 bis 2021 vom Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung (BMBF) finanziert wurde. In Zusammenarbeit zwischen dem Zentrum für Interdisziplinäre Risiko- und Innovationsforschung der Universität Stuttgart (ZIRIUS), dem Institut für Siedlungswasserbau, Wassergüte- und Abfallwirtschaft der Universität Stuttgart (ISWA), dem DVGW-Technologiezentrum Wasser (TZW) sowie den peruanischen Nichtregierungsorganisationen Servicios Educativos Rurales (SER) und Horizontes en Medio Ambiente y Salud (HOMAS) wurde in den Jahren 2020/2021 in einem partizipativen Prozess eine Pilotanlage für die Abwasserreinigung in der Gemeinde San Andrés de Tupicocha im Hochland des Einzugsgebiets des Río Lurín, Peru, installiert.Item Open Access Uncharted water conflicts ahead : mapping the scenario space for Germany in the year 2050(2024) Kosow, Hannah; Brauner, Simon; Brumme, Anja; Hauser, Wolfgang; Hölzlberger, Fabian; Moschner, Janina; Rübbelke, Dirk; Vögele, Stefan; Weimer-Jehle, WolfgangIntroduction: In recent years, conflicts surrounding the use, distribution, and governance of surface water and groundwater in Germany have gained prominence in the media, on the political agenda, and in research. Increasing effects of climate change, such as heatwaves and drought but also extreme rain events and flooding, are considered to become more prominent and pressing in the future by different societal actors. However, it remains highly uncertain if and what type of conflicts related to water quantity Germany might actually face in the future (and how they will be framed). This paper addresses one dimension of this uncertainty - namely the future context uncertainty of possible resource and water governance conflicts. Our research contributes to an improved understanding of the uncertainty concerning future climatic, natural, land use related, political, economic, and other societal contexts that could impact water conflicts. Method: We ask: What are possible coherent context scenarios for Germany in the year 2050, and how are they expected to influence future water conflicts? In an expert-based process, we apply a qualitative and systematic method of systems analysis, cross-impact balances (CIB). With CIB, we build internally consistent scenarios of possible futures and map the future scenario space. Results and discussion: Diversity mapping with a new CIB web application of the ScenarioWizard reveals that the scenario space is rather large and diverse. The identified scenario space of n = 355 internally consistent scenarios spans four most diverse scenarios “Polycrisis,” “Economy and agriculture in crisis,” “Growth through adaptation to climate change,” and “Sustainable transformation.” Depending on the development of future contexts, the risk for future water resource and governance conflicts may unfold in various ways. We conclude that our scenario analysis provides a useful base for research and practice to address the context uncertainty of water conflicts in Germany. Our results can be used for risk assessment, to define societal framework assumptions for societal-hydrological modeling, and to develop robust and adaptive strategies and policies.Item Open Access Integrated water management solutions in the Lurín Catchment, Lima, Peru : supporting United Nations' Sustainable Development Goal 6 : final report of the joint project TRUST(2021) Bondy, Jan; Brauer, Friederike; Cardona, Jaime; Chamorro, Johannes; Fischer, Thilo; Hahne, Lucia; Hinz, Stefan; Hügler, Michael; León, Christian D.; Keller, Sina; Kosow, Hannah; Kramer, Hanna; Krauss, Manuel; Minke, Ralf; Minn, Fabienne; Riese, Felix; Schroers, Samuel; Stauder, Stefan; Sturm, Sebastian; Wasielewski, Stephan; Wienhöfer, Jan; Zahumensky, Yvonne; León, Christian D.; Brauer, Friedrike; Hügler, Michael; Keller, Sina; Kosow, Hannah; Krauss, Manuel; Wasielewski, Stephan; Wienhöfer, JanWith the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, the United Nations have established a catalog of 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) to achieve a better and more sustainable future for all by 2030. One important aspect, formulated as Goal 6, is ensuring the availability and sustainable management of water and sanitation for all. Achieving SDG6 represents a challenge for planning, governance, and water management, especially in prosperous water-scarce regions, where water demand rises steadily and outgrows sustainable supply. Using the example of the catchment area of the Río Lurín in Lima, Peru, the TRUST project demonstrated how interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary approaches could contribute to meeting the water management challenges that are related to achieving SDG 6 in prosperous regions facing water scarcity. The approaches cover the closely interlinked domains water resources, water use, and water management. For each domain, we set up a comprehensive data base, conducted local analyses, and developed integrated concepts taking the river basin perspective into account. The concepts covered drinking water supply, safe wastewater treatment and disposal, and water reuse. They were developed in close cooperation with local actors and national authorities. The methods and tools can be transferred to other regions of the world with similar challenges. This TRUST Report is intended as a manual to help decision-makers and water management professionals to develop and implement locally adapted solutions for sustainable water management.Item Open Access Addressing goal conflicts : new policy mixes for commercial land use management(2022) Kosow, Hannah; Wassermann, Sandra; Bartke, Stephan; Goede, Paul; Grimski, Detlef; Imbert, Ines; Jenssen, Till; Laukel, Oliver; Proske, Matthias; Protzer, Jochen; Schumacher, Kim Philip; Siedentop, Stefan; Wagner-Endres, Sandra; Wittekind, Jürgen; Zimmermann, KarstenCommercial land use management that focuses on a future-oriented urban and regional development must address multiple goals. Effective policy mixes need to simultaneously (1) improve city-regional and inter-municipal cooperation, (2) reduce land take, and (3) assure the long-term economic development of a region. Using the Northern Black Forest in Germany as a case study, we brought together planning and land use research with public policy analysis. We applied cross-impact balances (CIB) to build and analyze a participatory policy-interaction model. Together with a group of 12 experts, we selected effective individual measures to reach each of the three goals and analyzed their interactions. We then assessed the current policy mix and designed alternative policy mixes. The results demonstrate that current approaches to commercial land use management present internal contradictions and generate only little synergies. Implementing innovative measures on a stand-alone basis runs the risk of not being sufficiently effective. In particular, the current practice of competing for municipal marketing and planning of commercial sites has inhibiting effects. We identified alternative policy mixes that achieve all three goals, avoid trade-offs, and generate significant synergy effects. Our results point towards a more coherent and sustainable city-regional (commercial) land-use governance.