02 Fakultät Bau- und Umweltingenieurwissenschaften

Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://elib.uni-stuttgart.de/handle/11682/3

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Institute: search.filters.UBSInstitut.Institut für Raumordnung und EntwicklungsplanungAuthor: search.filters.author.Garschagen, Matthias

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    New methods for local vulnerability scenarios to heat stress to inform urban planning : case study City of Ludwigsburg/Germany
    (2021) Birkmann, Jörn; Sauter, Holger; Garschagen, Matthias; Fleischhauer, Mark; Puntub, Wiriya; Klose, Charlotte; Burkhardt, Albrecht; Göttsche, Franziska; Laranjeira, Kevin; Müller, Julia; Büter, Björn
    Adaptation strategies to climate change need information about present and future climatic conditions. However, next to scenarios about the future climate, scenarios about future vulnerability are essential, since also changing societal conditions fundamentally determine adaptation needs. At the international and national level, first initiatives for developing vulnerability scenarios and so-called shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) have been undertaken. Most of these scenarios, however, do not provide sufficient information for local scenarios and local climate risk management. There is an urgent need to develop scenarios for vulnerability at the local scale in order to complement climate change scenarios. Heat stress is seen as a key challenge in cities in the context of climate change and further urban growth. Based on the research project ZURES (ZURES 2020 website), the paper presents a new method for human vulnerability scenarios to heat stress at the very local scale for growing medium-sized cities. In contrast to global models that outline future scenarios mostly with a country-level resolution, we show a new method on how to develop spatially specific scenario information for different districts within cities, starting from the planned urban development and expansion. The method provides a new opportunity to explore how different urban development strategies and housing policies influence future human exposure and vulnerability. Opportunities and constraints of the approach are revealed. Finally, we discuss how these scenarios can inform future urban development and risk management strategies and how these could complement more global or national approaches.
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    Heat vulnerability and adaptive capacities : findings of a household survey in Ludwigsburg, BW, Germany
    (2021) Laranjeira, Kevin; Göttsche, Franziska; Birkmann, Joern; Garschagen, Matthias
    In 2019, record-setting temperatures in Europe adversely affected human health and wellbeing (WMO 2020) and cities - thus, people in urban areas suffered particularly under heat stress. However, not only heat stress but also the differential vulnerability of people exposed is key when defining adaptation priorities. Up to now, local data on vulnerability and particularly adaptive capacities is rather rare. Various aspects of human vulnerability to heat and capacities to adapt to heat stress in urban areas still have to be explored and assessed, for example in terms of the adaptation at home, during work or while commuting to work. The paper presents new findings of a household survey on how and where different groups experience heat stress and how they assess their susceptibility and capacities to cope and adapt. The findings are based on a survey conducted in the medium-sized city of Ludwigsburg, Germany. Findings show significant linkages and correlations between socio-economic factors and heat vulnerability and capacities to respond. The analysis gives special emphasis to relationships between willingness to implement adaptive measures to reduce heat stress risks and risk perception and adaptive capacities. Particularly, the analysis of future adaptation options and the ability and willingness of different households to implement these provides new insights on the differential capacities to adapt and the need for tailor-made transformation programs.