02 Fakultät Bau- und Umweltingenieurwissenschaften
Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://elib.uni-stuttgart.de/handle/11682/3
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Item Open Access New methods for local vulnerability scenarios to heat stress to inform urban planning : case study City of Ludwigsburg/Germany(2021) Birkmann, Jörn; Sauter, Holger; Garschagen, Matthias; Fleischhauer, Mark; Puntub, Wiriya; Klose, Charlotte; Burkhardt, Albrecht; Göttsche, Franziska; Laranjeira, Kevin; Müller, Julia; Büter, BjörnAdaptation strategies to climate change need information about present and future climatic conditions. However, next to scenarios about the future climate, scenarios about future vulnerability are essential, since also changing societal conditions fundamentally determine adaptation needs. At the international and national level, first initiatives for developing vulnerability scenarios and so-called shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) have been undertaken. Most of these scenarios, however, do not provide sufficient information for local scenarios and local climate risk management. There is an urgent need to develop scenarios for vulnerability at the local scale in order to complement climate change scenarios. Heat stress is seen as a key challenge in cities in the context of climate change and further urban growth. Based on the research project ZURES (ZURES 2020 website), the paper presents a new method for human vulnerability scenarios to heat stress at the very local scale for growing medium-sized cities. In contrast to global models that outline future scenarios mostly with a country-level resolution, we show a new method on how to develop spatially specific scenario information for different districts within cities, starting from the planned urban development and expansion. The method provides a new opportunity to explore how different urban development strategies and housing policies influence future human exposure and vulnerability. Opportunities and constraints of the approach are revealed. Finally, we discuss how these scenarios can inform future urban development and risk management strategies and how these could complement more global or national approaches.Item Open Access Heat vulnerability and adaptive capacities : findings of a household survey in Ludwigsburg, BW, Germany(2021) Laranjeira, Kevin; Göttsche, Franziska; Birkmann, Joern; Garschagen, MatthiasIn 2019, record-setting temperatures in Europe adversely affected human health and wellbeing (WMO 2020) and cities - thus, people in urban areas suffered particularly under heat stress. However, not only heat stress but also the differential vulnerability of people exposed is key when defining adaptation priorities. Up to now, local data on vulnerability and particularly adaptive capacities is rather rare. Various aspects of human vulnerability to heat and capacities to adapt to heat stress in urban areas still have to be explored and assessed, for example in terms of the adaptation at home, during work or while commuting to work. The paper presents new findings of a household survey on how and where different groups experience heat stress and how they assess their susceptibility and capacities to cope and adapt. The findings are based on a survey conducted in the medium-sized city of Ludwigsburg, Germany. Findings show significant linkages and correlations between socio-economic factors and heat vulnerability and capacities to respond. The analysis gives special emphasis to relationships between willingness to implement adaptive measures to reduce heat stress risks and risk perception and adaptive capacities. Particularly, the analysis of future adaptation options and the ability and willingness of different households to implement these provides new insights on the differential capacities to adapt and the need for tailor-made transformation programs.Item Open Access Green infrastructure planning in developing countries; developing green concept in Kurdistan region-Iraq(2011) Mohamed, SawsanUnder the shadow of ‘Climate Change’ and ‘Global Warming’ effects and within the arising interest to sustainable development, this document presents the long-term framework for sustainable development, protecting the natural and historic environment and adapting cities to climate change through Green Infrastructure Planning (GIP). At the national level, the effect of climate change is overheating, with a more frequent sand storm, and major problem of water sacristy and drought. The Case Study Area is particularly vulnerable to, temperature increase, flooding, and to some extent drought conditions. Policies cover climate change mitigation and adaptation are various, starting from natural resource management, economic development, transportation plan, Green Infrastructure plan up to change of individual behaviour regarding energy consumption. In the course of the thesis framework, Climate Change adaptation is limited to Green Infrastructure application as an integral and important practice of the development process. Green Infrastructure Planning approach is an integration of planning at a different spatial level, so mainly two different special levels define the working environment, namely regional and metropolitan level. Also, Green Infrastructure provides a variety of ecosystem benefits. In the course of this study, the focus is on a certain function related to climatic, engineering and ecological benefits that will be used as the basic principal in developing the Green Infrastructure Plan at both Regional and City scale. The proposed GI Plan for Case Study Region (CSR) is an academic initiative at Regional level to identify and safeguard valued natural and cultural resources. The plan aims to bring together the region’s most important biodiversity areas, historical sites, and natural landscape including natural systems such as streams, Karez, watersheds, scenic landscape, and recreational site and to lesser extent working landscapes. In a dense conurbation like the Case Study City (CSC) where green spaces have to be multi-functional, the green infrastructure refers to the network of all green spaces that provides various benefits to the residents. Therefore the proposed GI Plan for Sulaimaniyah City (CSC) is an academic initiative at the municipal level to identify valued community green space resources. The plan aims to bring together the city most important green space resources with development of a new typology. With the provision of providing better climatic engineering function in and around the existing City, to improve the current climatic condition and as an adaptation strategy for climate change effects. So it is an initiative aiming to contribute to change the traditional conceptual understanding of green resource from something good to have, to an essential multifunctional resource that must be planned and developed in an integrated way.Item Open Access Assessing dynamics of rural-urban linkages and their influence on rural vulnerability to extreme flood events : case study of three rural farming communities in Punjab, Pakistan(2021) Jamshed, Ali; Birkmann, Jörn (Prof. Dr.-Ing. habil.)Although rural areas and cities are intrinsically linked, the vulnerability of rural households and communities to hazards or extreme weather and climatic events is often assessed without considering their relationships to cities. These linkages are important due to interdependencies between rural and urban areas for socio-economic and physical growth. Moreover, extreme events can lead to dramatic shifts in societal processes, disrupt rural-urban linkages, and affect rural vulnerability; these matters need to be investigated. Considering these gaps in knowledge, this study aims to conceptualise and understand rural vulnerability with respect to the dynamics of rural-urban linkages in the case of flooding, with a special focus on spatial factors like city size and proximity to the city. To do so, a mixed methods approach was adopted in this research. Still, the present study is largely based on quantitative techniques. First, the current literature on rural-urban linkages, vulnerability and factors that influence them was critically reviewed, and a unified framework was proposed to connect the elements of rural-urban linkages and flood vulnerability. The framework was designed to examine changes in rural-urban linkages and the subsequent impact on rural vulnerability to flooding. For empirical research, three case studies (Darya Khan, Muzaffargarh, and Multan) were selected in the Punjab province of Pakistan. A multistage, mixed methods sampling approach was applied to derive 325 samples. Secondary data, observations and a focus group discussion deepened understanding of the topic. The household survey, using a structured questionnaire, was administered to collect information from the required sample, comprised of a flood-affected rural population surrounding three different-sized cities and at varied proximity. The data were analysed using descriptive statistics (frequency analysis, cross-tabulation) and inferential statistics (correlation, regression, chi-square, the Mann-Witney U test). Moreover, an index-based approach was developed to obtain the composite values of the three components of vulnerability: (1) exposure, (2) susceptibility and (3) capacity. The findings show that flooding severely affects rural households both directly and indirectly. The ramifications have led to several changes among rural households; most notably, they have modified how they earn a living and their relationship with the nearest major city. Floods have shifted the flow of people, information, finances, goods, and services between rural and urban areas. The research indicates that rural-urban linkages are altered in that flooding both increases and decreases rural households’ dependence on cities in different ways. These outcomes are largely driven by socio-economic, spatial, and flood-related factors. In terms of vulnerability, first, the findings signal that rural populations surrounding smaller cities are less exposed, but more vulnerable, as compared to rural households that surround larger cities. This is because rural populations adjoining larger cities are better able to deal with flood hazards due to stronger linkages. Secondly, the results confirmed that distance to the city influences the vulnerability of surrounding farming households. Rural farming households located close to cities are less vulnerable, mainly due to a better transfer of services and facilities from cities, which has made such households more educated, informed, financially strong and more closely connected, with easier access to public and private institutions. Thus, city size and proximity to the city modify linkages that further impact the flood vulnerability of the rural population. Lastly, changes in linkages made by rural households following a flood influence their overall vulnerability differently; increasing linkages with the city after a flood reduce their vulnerability, while decreasing linkages with the city exacerbate it. These changes in linkages are used to adapt to future floods and affect rural households’ vulnerability both positively and negatively. Hence, the dynamics of linkages and rural households’ exchanges with cities are crucial to reducing their vulnerability to future flood hazards. This study paves the way for regional planners and disaster managers to establish synergies between them for devising integrated flood management and development strategies that strengthen linkages, mitigate disparities and curtail vulnerability.Item Open Access Global vulnerability hotspots : differences and agreement between international indicator-based assessments(2021) Feldmeyer, Daniel; Birkmann, Joern; McMillan, Joanna M.; Stringer, Lindsay; Leal Filho, Walter; Djalante, Riyanti; Pinho, Patricia F.; Liwenga, EmmaClimate change impacts and their consequences are determined not only by the intensity and frequency of different climatic hazards but also by the vulnerability of the system, society or community exposed. While general agreement exists about the importance of assessing vulnerability to understand climate risks, there is still a tendency to neglect global and regional vulnerability patterns because they are hard to quantify, despite their value in informing adaptation, disaster risk and development policies. Several approaches to quantifying global vulnerability exist. These differ in terms of the indicators they use and how they classify countries or regions into vulnerability classes. The paper presents the structure of selected approaches and explores two indices in depth. The aim of this paper is to assess the level of agreement between selected international indicator-based assessments of vulnerability, at the level of climate regions. Results suggest that the two major global vulnerability assessments analysed largely agree on the location of the most and least vulnerable regions when these assessments are aggregated to a regional scale using the IPCC’s climate regions. The paper then discusses the robustness of the information derived and its usefulness for adaptation, disaster risk and development policies. Measuring progress towards reducing vulnerability to climate change and hazards is key for various agencies and actors in order to be able to develop informed policies and strategies for managing climate risks and to promote enabling conditions for achieving the SDGs and building resilience.Item Open Access A conceptual framework to understand the dynamics of rural-urban linkages for rural flood vulnerability(2020) Jamshed, Ali; Birkmann, Joern; Feldmeyer, Daniel; Rana, Irfan AhmadRural areas are highly vulnerable to floods due to limited social, economic, and physical resources. Understanding rural vulnerability is vital for developing effective disaster risk reduction strategies. Even though rural areas and cities are intrinsically linked, rural vulnerability was assessed without considering its relation to cities. Numerous theoretical frameworks on systemizing and assessing vulnerability were developed with varying level of scope and depth in terms of scale, dimensions, and components. Nevertheless, these frameworks did not explicitly mention the impact of flood or other hazards on the linkages between spatial units i.e., rural and urban. This study aims to understand and conceptualize the rural vulnerability with respect to the dynamics of rural-urban linkages in the case of flood events. To do so, current literature on rural-urban linkages, vulnerability, as well as factors that influence them were critically reviewed. Taking into account the main elements of rural-urban linkages (flow of people, information, finances, goods and services), components of vulnerability (exposure, susceptibility, and capacity), and factors (social, economic, institutional, infrastructural, spatial, and environmental), a unified framework is proposed. The framework underscores that the role of rural-urban linkages is essential to fully understand rural flood vulnerability. Moreover, the framework highlights the role of spatial factors-city size and proximity to the city-as crucial to comprehend rural vulnerability. This framework can be used as a tool for understanding multifaceted rural vulnerability for climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction considering spatial development perspective. In this context, empirical investigations can be made to validate the proposed framework and policies can be introduced accordingly. Overall, the proposed framework can help recognize concepts and links of vulnerability, rural–urban dependencies, and rural development dynamics.Item Open Access The impact of war on heavy metal concentrations and the seasonal variation of pollutants in soils of the conflict zone and adjacent areas in Mosul city(2024) Altahaan, Zena; Dobslaw, DanielThe present study addresses the war-related soil contamination with heavy metals in the urban area of Mosul/Iraq as a result of the war of liberation from ISIS (2014-2017). In order to cover seasonal influences, a total of eight sample sets from soils in the conflict area and adjacent areas were collected over the course of the year in two three-month test series, and the parameters pH, E.C., salinity and the heavy metals Cd, Pb, Zn, Cr and Ni were taken as indicators for contamination. Results showed average heavy metal levels in the conflict areas above the global average limits, with some limits also being exceeded in the adjacent areas. All sampling sites were highly contaminated with Cd and moderately contaminated with Pb. The Igeo contamination factors indicated that the sampling sites in the conflict area were moderately to heavily contaminated with Cd, Pb, Zn, Cr and Ni, while the pollution load index indicated that all sites in the conflict zone were extremely to heavily contaminated with heavy metals. The study data give cause for concern that heavy metals may be released into other ecosystems.