02 Fakultät Bau- und Umweltingenieurwissenschaften

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    Managed retreat as adaptation option : investigating different resettlement approaches and their impacts : lessons from metro Manila
    (2021) Lauer, Hannes; Delos Reyes, Mario; Birkmann, Joern
    Managed retreat has become a recommended adaptation strategy for hazard-prone coastal cities. The study aimed to improve considerations for the contextual factors that influence the success of managed retreat and resettlement projects in Metro Manila. Data were collected through a mixed-method approach consisting of a screening of relevant literature, a qualitative case analysis of resettlement projects, and a workshop series with Philippine stakeholders. It turned out that the resettlement of informal settlers is a central element of urban development. Though in-city resettlement is preferred, the majority of existing and planned projects are developed in off-city locations. The findings present a nuanced view of different retreat approaches. Not all in-city resettlements are successful, and the unpopular off-city projects have a potentially important role for urban and regional development. A strategic planning thread to develop concepts for qualitative off-city settlements that counteract uncontrolled urban sprawl with monofunctional residential areas for urban poor people was deduced. The other thread asks for pathways for inner-city development with innovative, vertical, in-city projects. A final observation was that climate change and the COVID-19 pandemic are worsening the situation in informal settlements, thus strengthening the argument for the planned decentralization of Metro Manila’s congested urban areas.
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    New methods for local vulnerability scenarios to heat stress to inform urban planning : case study City of Ludwigsburg/Germany
    (2021) Birkmann, Jörn; Sauter, Holger; Garschagen, Matthias; Fleischhauer, Mark; Puntub, Wiriya; Klose, Charlotte; Burkhardt, Albrecht; Göttsche, Franziska; Laranjeira, Kevin; Müller, Julia; Büter, Björn
    Adaptation strategies to climate change need information about present and future climatic conditions. However, next to scenarios about the future climate, scenarios about future vulnerability are essential, since also changing societal conditions fundamentally determine adaptation needs. At the international and national level, first initiatives for developing vulnerability scenarios and so-called shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) have been undertaken. Most of these scenarios, however, do not provide sufficient information for local scenarios and local climate risk management. There is an urgent need to develop scenarios for vulnerability at the local scale in order to complement climate change scenarios. Heat stress is seen as a key challenge in cities in the context of climate change and further urban growth. Based on the research project ZURES (ZURES 2020 website), the paper presents a new method for human vulnerability scenarios to heat stress at the very local scale for growing medium-sized cities. In contrast to global models that outline future scenarios mostly with a country-level resolution, we show a new method on how to develop spatially specific scenario information for different districts within cities, starting from the planned urban development and expansion. The method provides a new opportunity to explore how different urban development strategies and housing policies influence future human exposure and vulnerability. Opportunities and constraints of the approach are revealed. Finally, we discuss how these scenarios can inform future urban development and risk management strategies and how these could complement more global or national approaches.
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    Adaptation after extreme flooding events : moving or staying? The case of the Ahr Valley in Germany
    (2023) Truedinger, Alessa Jasmin; Jamshed, Ali; Sauter, Holger; Birkmann, Joern
    More than 130 lives were lost in the 2021 heavy precipitation and flood event in the Ahr Valley, Germany, where large parts of the valley were destroyed. Afterwards, public funding of about 15 billion Euros has been made available for reconstruction. However, with people and settlements being in highly exposed zones, the core question that is not sufficiently addressed is whether affected people want to rebuild in the same place, or rather opt to move out. The paper explores this question and assesses motivations and reasons for moving or staying in the Ahr Valley. For this purpose, a household survey was conducted focusing on 516 flood-affected households. The collected data was analyzed using descriptive and inferential statistics. The results revealed that the ownership of the house or flat significantly influenced the decision of whether to stay or to leave. In addition, an attachment to the place and the belief that such extreme events occur very rarely influenced the decision to stay and rebuild. Age, gender and household income barely influenced the decision to stay or to move to a new place. Interestingly, results demonstrated that many respondents view settlement retreat and the relocation of critical infrastructures as important options to reduce risk, however, many still rebuild in the same place. These insights enable local policy and practice to better address the needs of the population in terms of whether to stay or move after such an extreme disaster.
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    Heat vulnerability and adaptive capacities : findings of a household survey in Ludwigsburg, BW, Germany
    (2021) Laranjeira, Kevin; Göttsche, Franziska; Birkmann, Joern; Garschagen, Matthias
    In 2019, record-setting temperatures in Europe adversely affected human health and wellbeing (WMO 2020) and cities - thus, people in urban areas suffered particularly under heat stress. However, not only heat stress but also the differential vulnerability of people exposed is key when defining adaptation priorities. Up to now, local data on vulnerability and particularly adaptive capacities is rather rare. Various aspects of human vulnerability to heat and capacities to adapt to heat stress in urban areas still have to be explored and assessed, for example in terms of the adaptation at home, during work or while commuting to work. The paper presents new findings of a household survey on how and where different groups experience heat stress and how they assess their susceptibility and capacities to cope and adapt. The findings are based on a survey conducted in the medium-sized city of Ludwigsburg, Germany. Findings show significant linkages and correlations between socio-economic factors and heat vulnerability and capacities to respond. The analysis gives special emphasis to relationships between willingness to implement adaptive measures to reduce heat stress risks and risk perception and adaptive capacities. Particularly, the analysis of future adaptation options and the ability and willingness of different households to implement these provides new insights on the differential capacities to adapt and the need for tailor-made transformation programs.
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    Green infrastructure planning in developing countries; developing green concept in Kurdistan region-Iraq
    (2011) Mohamed, Sawsan
    Under the shadow of ‘Climate Change’ and ‘Global Warming’ effects and within the arising interest to sustainable development, this document presents the long-term framework for sustainable development, protecting the natural and historic environment and adapting cities to climate change through Green Infrastructure Planning (GIP). At the national level, the effect of climate change is overheating, with a more frequent sand storm, and major problem of water sacristy and drought. The Case Study Area is particularly vulnerable to, temperature increase, flooding, and to some extent drought conditions. Policies cover climate change mitigation and adaptation are various, starting from natural resource management, economic development, transportation plan, Green Infrastructure plan up to change of individual behaviour regarding energy consumption. In the course of the thesis framework, Climate Change adaptation is limited to Green Infrastructure application as an integral and important practice of the development process. Green Infrastructure Planning approach is an integration of planning at a different spatial level, so mainly two different special levels define the working environment, namely regional and metropolitan level. Also, Green Infrastructure provides a variety of ecosystem benefits. In the course of this study, the focus is on a certain function related to climatic, engineering and ecological benefits that will be used as the basic principal in developing the Green Infrastructure Plan at both Regional and City scale. The proposed GI Plan for Case Study Region (CSR) is an academic initiative at Regional level to identify and safeguard valued natural and cultural resources. The plan aims to bring together the region’s most important biodiversity areas, historical sites, and natural landscape including natural systems such as streams, Karez, watersheds, scenic landscape, and recreational site and to lesser extent working landscapes. In a dense conurbation like the Case Study City (CSC) where green spaces have to be multi-functional, the green infrastructure refers to the network of all green spaces that provides various benefits to the residents. Therefore the proposed GI Plan for Sulaimaniyah City (CSC) is an academic initiative at the municipal level to identify valued community green space resources. The plan aims to bring together the city most important green space resources with development of a new typology. With the provision of providing better climatic engineering function in and around the existing City, to improve the current climatic condition and as an adaptation strategy for climate change effects. So it is an initiative aiming to contribute to change the traditional conceptual understanding of green resource from something good to have, to an essential multifunctional resource that must be planned and developed in an integrated way.
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    Regionalised population forecast for the Union of Myanmar
    (2004) Thwe, Than Than; Treuner, Peter (Prof. Dr. sc. pol.)
    The objective of the study is to improve the quality of the foundations for preparing regional planning decisions by providing quantitative and qualitative regionalised population forecasts for Myanmar, because regional planning is always related to the future. Regional planners must have the information not only about the present population but also about future development of population volumes and structures in order to plan for the infrastructure demand and other demands. Therefore, the forecasting must consider the age group and gender structure of the population. In Myanmar, the official demographic forecasting is generally formulated in terms of overall growth rates of growth using as an exponential method without consideration of age groups of the population in regional planning. Therefore these forecasts are not very useful for regional planning. The population forecast of this study considers the main aspects of demographic change - fertility, mortality and migration of the formulating demographic development process. In the frame of the study available software for population forecasting has been tested whether it is suitable for an application in the special case of Myanmar. The examined population models showed some weaknesses, especially in the field of migration. Therefore a method for a regionalised population forecast in the Union of Myanmar has been developed. The developed method is adapted to the special situation of Myanmar. The population model has a modular structure. The natural population development is considered in model by a cohort component method which allows to describe the three aspects of natural population development i.e births, deaths and aging. The method also allows to calculate different scenarios to compare the changes of age structure of the cohort component. The migration model only considers the internal migrants between 20 spatial units in Myanmar because there is no available information for the international migrants and obviously the numbers of international migrants are very small. It also does not take into account migration within the spatial units. It uses an explanatory approach that starts from the hypothesis that migration depends on the population volume in the source and the destination and the distance between spatial units. A Life Time Migration survey showed that people moved to the developed regions that means, the economic factors are very strong influence on migration which should be considered one of the attractiveness parameters in the migration model. Therefore the migration model becomes a combination of attractiveness and the gravity approach. The study is based on the year 2000 and it focuses the spatial units' population by three scenarios up to the year 2020. According to the results of the three scenarios, the Union's population will increase to 71.68 or 72.25 millions by the year 2020. There differences are on the level of the Union not significant but the corresponding results for the 20 spatial units' populations differ in a high degree. In future the proposed model can be improved if additional data are available.
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    Planning for climate change: an assessment of vulnerability in the city of São Paulo
    (2022) Batista Resende, Nayara Caroline
    The evidence on climate change and its implications to the future generations have motivated an increasing discussion on adaptation agendas and the necessity to plan more resilient urban spaces. However, implementing effective approaches for climate change adaptation are particularly challenging in countries like Brazil, where the planning of an adequate infrastructure system was not able to accompany the accelerated urbanisation process. Particularly in the city of São Paulo, such rapid urban population growth contributed to an urbanisation that is territorially extensive and characterised by socio-spatial inequalities and severe environmental issues. As the existent inequalities are predicted to aggravate the effects of climate change in the livelihoods of the population, it becomes of utmost importance to identify and address current vulnerabilities in order to strengthen the resilience of cities. Therefore, the aim of the thesis is to identify areas within the municipality of São Paulo that are subjected to a greater risk when faced with extreme events and climate change, so that vulnerable regions, sectors or population groups can be prioritised when planning adaptation strategies. Thus, a vulnerability assessment was elaborated through the construction of a social vulnerability index and the geospatial analysis of data using GIS tools. The results of the assessment were then combined to data regarding the susceptibility to flood events in order to produce a map of risk posed by flooding, so that “territories of risk” - where social and environmental vulnerabilities overlap - could be identified for intervention.
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    Siedlungsflächeninanspruchnahme in Abhängigkeit von Erreichbarkeitsverhältnissen und Umweltqualitäten : eine empirische Untersuchung anhand der Siedlungsstrukturentwicklung in der Region Stuttgart
    (2010) Gaspers, Lutz; Siedentop, Stefan (Prof. Dr.-Ing.)
    Der räumliche Entwicklungsprozess in Stadtregionen und deren Umland in Deutschland ist nach wie vor durch eine starke Flächenneuinanspruchnahme charakterisiert. Derzeit (im Jahr 2009) werden - statistisch gesehen - täglich rd. 96 Hektar Fläche als Verkehrs- und Siedlungsfläche neu ausgewiesen. Der größte Teil dieser Fläche wird für Wohnzwecke in Anspruch genommen. Dem Prozess der Flächenneuinanspruchnahme kommt eine immer stärkere Bedeutung zu, nicht nur weil Grund und Boden eine knappe und begrenzte Ressource ist. Aus ökologischen als auch aus wirtschaftlichen Gründen bedarf es Veränderungen beim Prozess der Neuflächeninanspruchnahme. Seit der UN-Konferenz für Umwelt und Entwicklung in Rio de Janeiro 1992 und dem dort formulierten Ziel einer Nachhaltigen Entwicklung werden nationale Programme aufgestellt, in denen Wege und Ziele zu deren Zielerreichung formuliert sind. In Deutschland wurde dazu 2002 von der Bundesregierung eine Nationale Nachhaltigkeitsstrategie vorgelegt, in der eine Reduzierung der Neuinanspruchnahme von Flächen zu Siedlungs- und Verkehrszwecken bis 2020 auf 30 Hektar täglich formuliert wurde. Um solche Ziele erreichen zu können ist es wichtig, Zusammenhänge und Wechselwirkungen der räumlichen Entwicklung zu erkennen. Im ersten Teil dieser Arbeit werden theoretische Ansätze zur Erklärung der räumlichen Entwicklung erläutert und es wird der Prozess der regionalen Entwicklung in Deutschland dargestellt. Dem Leitbild der dezentralen Konzentration und ihre Umsetzung im Planungssystem der Bundesrepublik kommt dabei eine bedeutende Rolle zu. Durch die Analyse von theoretischen Ansätzen und empirischen Studien werden die Motivationen für die Entscheidungsfindung eingegrenzt und die Bedeutung von Umweltqualitäten und Erreichbarkeitskriterien werden daraus abgeleitet. Dies veranlasst zur Formulierung von Hypothesen, in denen Erreichbarkeitskriterien und Umweltqualitäten unterschiedlich starke Bedeutungen bei der Flächenneuinanspruchnahme zukommen. Es wird untersucht, ob entweder Erreichbarkeitskriterien stärkere Bedeutung besitzen (Hypothese 1) oder die Umweltqualitäten als wesentliche Faktoren gelten (Hypothese 2) oder beide Kriterien starke Einflüsse auf die Entscheidung zur Flächeninanspruchnahme ausüben (Hypothese 3) bzw. ob primär andere Faktoren bei der Entscheidungsfindung berücksichtigt werden (Hypothese 4). Diese Hypothesen werden hinsichtlich ihrer Gültigkeit anhand der Siedlungsentwicklung eines Untersuchungsraums überprüft. Dazu wurde die Region Stuttgart ausgewählt und zu Analysezwecken in 624 Untersuchungseinheiten unterteilt. Bei der Untersuchung konnten Daten eines bereits früher durchgeführten Forschungsprojekts (WUMS-Projekt) einbezogen werden. Die Analyse der Entwicklung der Siedlungsstruktur über einen längeren Untersuchungszeitraum in der Region Stuttgart zeigt für diese 624 Untersuchungseinheiten verschiedene Trends. Untersuchungseinheiten mit hohen Umfängen an Flächenneuinanspruchnahme konnten identifiziert werden und den in den räumlichen Plänen definierten Ziel-Situationen gegenübergestellt werden. Es gibt Gründe, warum in bestimmten Untersuchungseinheiten Flächenneuinanspruchnahme im größeren Umfang erfolgte als in anderen. Für diese Untersuchungseinheiten wurde eine detaillierte Untersuchung mit Hilfe von Indikatoren, über die Erreichbarkeitskriterien als auch Umweltqualitäten beschreiben werden, durchgeführt. Mit Hilfe statistischer Analysen wird die Gültigkeit der Hypothesen überprüft. Die Tests weisen darauf hin, dass weder Erreichbarkeitsverhältnisse noch Umweltqualitäten allein die Entscheidungen zur Flächenneuinanspruchnahme beeinflussen. Die Tests zeigen jedoch, dass Untersuchungseinheiten mit höheren Umfängen an Flächenneuinanspruchnahme über relativ bessere Erreichbarkeitsverhältnisse und bessere Umweltbedingungen verfügen. Hypothese 1 und 2 muss deshalb verworfen werden. Die Entwicklung im Untersuchungsraum kann besser durch Hypothese 3 bzw. Hypothese 4 erklärt werden. Darüber hinaus existieren noch andere Kriterien, die auch die Entwicklung beeinflussen. Aufgrund der verfügbaren Daten konnten für die dieser Untersuchung zu Grunde gelegten Untersuchungseinheiten keine weiteren Kriterien untersucht werden. Dennoch zeigt diese Untersuchung anhand der empirischen Analysen, dass Erreichbarkeitskriterien und Umweltqualitäten wichtige Einflussgrößen bei Flächennutzungsentscheidungen darstellen. Es werden die Kriterien herausgestellt, auf die durch planerische Instrumente Einfluss genommen werden kann. Andere Kriterien – überwiegend aus dem sozialen Bereich - entziehen sich nahezu völlig der Einflussnahme durch planerische Instrumente. Das Wissen über diese Kriterien stellt eine wesentliche Grundlage zur Akzeptanz und Durchsetzbarkeit räumlicher Planungen dar.
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    Linkages between typologies of existing urban development patterns and human vulnerability to heat stress in Lahore
    (2022) Iqbal, Nimra; Ravan, Marvin; Jamshed, Ali; Birkmann, Joern; Somarakis, Giorgos; Mitraka, Zina; Chrysoulakis, Nektarios
    The combined effects of global warming, urbanization, and demographic change influence climate risk for urban populations, particularly in metropolitan areas with developing economies. To inform climate change adaptation and spatial planning, it is important to study urban climatic hazards and populations at risk in relation to urban growth trends and development patterns. However, this relationship has not been adequately investigated in studies dedicated to climate vulnerability. This study identifies the typologies of development patterns within Lahore, Pakistan, investigates the heat vulnerability of residents at a neighborhood scale, and establishes a relationship between both of these factors. We identified urban clusters with diverse development patterns. Fourteen context- and site-specific indicators were selected to construct a human heat vulnerability index. Weighted sum, cluster analysis, and ANOVA test of variance were conducted to analyze the data. Our results demonstrate that development patterns significantly influence human vulnerability to heat stress, e.g., vulnerability is higher in older cities and undeveloped neighborhoods with less diverse land uses. These findings are essential for informing policy-makers, decision-makers and spatial planners about proactive adaptation planning in dynamic urban environments.