02 Fakultät Bau- und Umweltingenieurwissenschaften

Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://elib.uni-stuttgart.de/handle/11682/3

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Author: search.filters.author.Haun, StefanSubject: search.filters.subject.550

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    Assessment of uncertainties in a complex modeling chain for predicting reservoir sedimentation under changing climate
    (2023) Pesci, María Herminia; Mouris, Kilian; Haun, Stefan; Förster, Kristian
    Long-term predictions of reservoir sedimentation require an objective consideration of the preceding catchment processes. In this study, we apply a complex modeling chain to predict sedimentation processes in the Banja reservoir (Albania). The modeling chain consists of the water balance model WaSiM, the soil erosion and sediment transport model combination RUSLE-SEDD, and the 3d hydro-morphodynamic reservoir model SSIIM2 to accurately represent all relevant physical processes. Furthermore, an ensemble of climate models is used to analyze future scenarios. Although the capabilities of each model enable us to obtain satisfying results, the propagation of uncertainties in the modeling chain cannot be neglected. Hence, approximate model parameter uncertainties are quantified with the First-Order Second-Moment (FOSM) method. Another source of uncertainty for long-term predictions is the spread of climate projections. Thus, we compared both sources of uncertainties and found that the uncertainties generated by climate projections are 408% (for runoff), 539% (for sediment yield), and 272% (for bed elevation in the reservoir) larger than the model parameter uncertainties. We conclude that (i) FOSM is a suitable method for quantifying approximate parameter uncertainties in a complex modeling chain, (ii) the model parameter uncertainties are smaller than the spread of climate projections, and (iii) these uncertainties are of the same order of magnitude as the change signal for the investigated low-emission scenario. Thus, the proposed method might support modelers to communicate different sources of uncertainty in complex modeling chains, including climate impact models.
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    High spatio‐temporal resolution measurements of cohesive sediment erosion
    (2020) Beckers, Felix; Inskeep, Caleb; Haun, Stefan; Schmid, Gerhard; Wieprecht, Silke; Noack, Markus
    In this study, we present a novel approach to measure fundamental processes of cohesive sediment erosion. The experimental setup consists of a laboratory erosion flume (SETEG) and a photogrammetric method to detect sediment erosion (PHOTOSED). Detailed data are presented for three erosion experiments, which were conducted with a natural non‐cohesive/cohesive sediment mixture at increasing sediment depths (4, 8, 16 cm). In each experiment, the sediment was exposed to a set of incrementally increasing shear stresses and the erosion was measured dynamically, pixel‐based, and approximate to the process scale given the resolution of PHOTOSED. This enables us to distinguish between (i) individual emerging erosion spots caused by surface erosion and (ii) large holes torn open by detached aggregate chunks. Moreover, interrelated processes were observed, such as (iii) propagation of the erosion in the longitudinal and lateral direction leading to merging of disconnected erosion areas and (iv) progressive vertical erosion of already affected areas. By complementing the (bulk) erosion volume profiles with additional quantitative variables, which contain spatial information (erosion area, specific deepening, number of disconnected erosion areas), conclusions on the erosion behaviour (and the dominant processes) can be drawn without requiring qualitative information (such as visual observations). In addition, we provide figures indicating the spatio‐temporal erosion variability and the (bulk) erosion rates for selected time periods. We evaluate the variability by statistical quantities and show that significant erosion is mainly confined to only a few events during temporal progression, but then considerably exceeds the time‐averaged median of the erosion (factors between 7.0 and 16.0). Further, we point to uncertainties in using (bulk) erosion rates to assess cohesive sediment erosion and particularly the underlying processes. As a whole, the results emphasise the need to measure cohesive sediment erosion with high spatio‐temporal resolution to obtain reliable and robust information.