Planning for climate change: an assessment of vulnerability in the city of São Paulo

Abstract

The evidence on climate change and its implications to the future generations have motivated an increasing discussion on adaptation agendas and the necessity to plan more resilient urban spaces. However, implementing effective approaches for climate change adaptation are particularly challenging in countries like Brazil, where the planning of an adequate infrastructure system was not able to accompany the accelerated urbanisation process. Particularly in the city of São Paulo, such rapid urban population growth contributed to an urbanisation that is territorially extensive and characterised by socio-spatial inequalities and severe environmental issues. As the existent inequalities are predicted to aggravate the effects of climate change in the livelihoods of the population, it becomes of utmost importance to identify and address current vulnerabilities in order to strengthen the resilience of cities. Therefore, the aim of the thesis is to identify areas within the municipality of São Paulo that are subjected to a greater risk when faced with extreme events and climate change, so that vulnerable regions, sectors or population groups can be prioritised when planning adaptation strategies. Thus, a vulnerability assessment was elaborated through the construction of a social vulnerability index and the geospatial analysis of data using GIS tools. The results of the assessment were then combined to data regarding the susceptibility to flood events in order to produce a map of risk posed by flooding, so that “territories of risk” - where social and environmental vulnerabilities overlap - could be identified for intervention.