Analyzing and characterizing spaceborne observation of water storage variation : past, present, future

Abstract

Water storage is an indispensable constituent of the intricate water cycle, as it governs the availability and distribution of this precious resource. Any alteration in the water storage can trigger a cascade of consequences, affecting not only our agricultural practices but also the well-being of various ecosystems and the occurrence of natural hazards. Therefore, it is essential to monitor and manage the water storage levels prudently to ensure a sustainable future for our planet. Despite significant advancements in ground-based measurements and modeling techniques, accurately measuring water storage variation remained a major challenge for a long time. Since 2002, the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and its successor GRACE Follow-On (GRACE-FO) satellites have revolutionized our understanding of the Earth's water cycle. By detecting variations in the Earth's gravity field caused by changes in water distribution, these satellites can precisely measure changes in total water storage (TWS) across the entire globe, providing a truly comprehensive view of the world's water resources. This information has proved invaluable for understanding how water resources are changing over time, and for developing strategies to manage these resources sustainably. However, GRACE and GRACE-FO are subject to various challenges that must be addressed in order to enhance the efficacy of our exploitation of GRACE observations for scientific and practical purposes. This thesis aims to address some of the challenges faced by GRACE and GRACE-FO. Since the inception of the GRACE mission, scholars have commonly extracted mass changes from observations by approximating the Earth's gravity field utilizing mathematical functions termed spherical harmonics. Various institutions have already processed GRACE(-FO) data, known as level-2 data in the GRACE community, considering the constraints, approaches, and models that have been utilized. However, this processed data necessitates post-processing to be used for several applications, such as hydrology and climate research. In this thesis, we evaluate various methods of processing GRACE(-FO) level-2 data and assess the spatio-temporal effect of the post-processing steps. Furthermore, we aim to compare the consistency between GRACE and its successor mission, GRACE-FO, in terms of data quality and measurement accuracy. By analyzing and comparing the data from these two missions, we can identify any potential discrepancies or differences and establish the level of confidence in the accuracy and reliability of the GRACE-FO measurements. Finally, we will compare the processed level-3 products with the level-3 products that are presently accessible online. The relatively short record of the GRACE measurements, compared to other satellite missions and observational records, can limit some studies that require long-term data. This short record makes it challenging to separate long-term signals from short-term variability and validate the data with ground-based measurements or other satellite missions. To address this limitation, this thesis expands the temporal coverage of GRACE(-FO) observations using global hydrological, atmospheric, and reanalysis models. First, we assess these models in estimating the TWS variation at a global scale. We compare the performance of various methods including data-driven and machine learning approaches in incorporating models and reconstruct GRACE TWS change. The results are also validated against Satellite Laser Ranging (SLR) observations over the pre-GRACE period. This thesis develops a hindcasted GRACE, which provides a better understanding of the changes in the Earth's water storage on a longer time scale. The GRACE satellite mission detects changes in the overall water storage in a specific region but cannot distinguish between the different compartments of TWS, such as surface water, groundwater, and soil moisture. Understanding these individual components is crucial for managing water resources and addressing the effects of droughts and floods. This study aims to integrate various data sources to improve our understanding of water storage variations at the continental to basin scale, including water fluxes, lake water level, and lake storage change data. Additionally, the study demonstrates the importance of combining GRACE(-FO) observations with other measurements, such as piezometric wells and rain-gauges, to understand the water scarcity predicament in Iran and other regions facing similar challenges. The GRACE satellite mission provides valuable insights into the Earth's system. However, the GRACE product has a level of uncertainty due to several error sources. While the mission has taken measures to minimize these uncertainties, researchers need to account for them when analyzing the data and communicate them when reporting findings. This thesis proposes a probabilistic approach to incorporate the Total Water Storage Anomaly (TWSA) data from GRACE(-FO). By accounting for the uncertainty in the TWSA data, this approach can provide a more comprehensive understanding of drought conditions, which is essential for decision makers managing water resources and responding to drought events.