Exposure of individuals in Europe to air pollution and related health effects

Abstract

Air pollutants, especially PM2.5 and NO2, are associated with adverse health impacts, as shown by numerous epidemiological studies. In these studies, the observed health impacts have been correlated with ambient concentrations, mainly taken from air pollution monitoring stations. However, individuals are harmed by the pollutants in the inhaled air at the places where they stay, and thus, the concentration of pollutants in the inhaled air is obviously a better indicator for health impacts than the ambient concentration at a monitoring station. Furthermore, the current method for estimating the occurrence of chronic diseases uses annual average concentrations as indicator. However, according to current hypotheses, chronic diseases, especially chronic mortality, develop through the exposure to pollutants over many years, maybe up to a full lifetime. Thus in this study, a methodology and a computer-aided probabilistic model system are described for calculating the exposure of a person to PM2.5 and NO2 over the whole lifetime where the person is characterized by attributes such as age, gender, place of residence and work as well as socioeconomic status. The model system contains a “life course trajectory model”, which estimates the course of the education and professional development for the past lifetime of a person, whose present socioeconomic status is known. Furthermore, a “time-activity model” estimates at which places (so-called micro-environments) a person with a certain socioeconomic status stayed and how long he stayed there within a certain year. The concentrations of air pollutants in indoor environments are calculated with a “mass-balance model”, the outdoor concentrations with “atmospheric models”. Finally, the results of these models are combined to estimate the annual average exposure for the life years of individuals and population subgroups. The exposure is then used to estimate and monetize health impacts. The exposures and health impacts for a number of population subgroups in Europe are presented. For instance, a European citizen, who was 70 years old in 2015, has been exposed to around 25 μg/m3 of PM2.5 during his lifetime above the age of 30, which is associated with a reduction of life expectancy of 13.4 days per year of exposure above 30.