Development of scenarios for a multi-model system analysis based on the example of a cellular energy system

Abstract

Scenario analysis combined with system and market modelling is a well-established method to evaluate technological and societal developments and their impacts on future energy pathways. This paper presents a process-oriented method for developing consistent energy scenarios using multiple energy system models. Its added value is that the developed energy scenarios are consistent in a multi-model environment and practicable for a broader target group from scientists to practitioners. The scenarios consist of comprehensive storylines and systematically defined quantitative parameters. Following a step-by-step process, a condensed set of overlapping descriptors is generated and used to define the scenarios in a consistent parameter matrix. The set of descriptors allow consistent and comparable outputs independent of model-specific characteristics. The corresponding quantitative parameters can be used by diverse energy system tools. Using multiple models, a team of researchers can explore questions from differing points of view. In an example study, we apply the method to develop scenarios in the context of a cellular energy system. This approach enables the development of scenarios that provide a consistent basis for both stakeholder discourse and multi-model system analysis.