Energy models and energy policy problems

Abstract

I have been involved in energy modelling for planning and policy making for more than ten years now and I am still convinced that systematic and careful modelling can contribute to better decisions in the energy policy area. I think I should make this statement right at the beginning, because my contribution will be somewhat critical. It will to some extend focus on the failures, misuses and unresolved issues in energy policy modelling rather than report about the successes, which although they are there, are still small compared with the potential benefits and prospects, that energy models can offer to the decision makers. Nevertheless I will start with a brief review of the history and methods used in energy modelling and I will describe a limited number of representative models in order to illustrate the present state of the art. The review is not intended to be exhaustive or to provide a comparative evaluation of models designed for similar purposes. Rather, the models are reviewed to illustrate the advances and the structure of recent and current efforts by energy modellers.