Decision analytic tools for resolving uncertainty in the energy debate

Abstract

Within the context of a Social Compatibility Study on Energy Supply Systems a complex decision making model was used to incorporate scientific expertize and public participation into the process of policy formulation and evaluation. The study was directed by the program group “Technology and Society” of the Nuclear Research Centre Jülich. It consisted of three parts: First, with the aid of value tree analysis the whole spectrum of concern and dimensions relevant to the energy issue in Germany was collected and structured in a combined value tree representing the values and criteria of nine important interest groups in the Federal Republic of Germany. Second, the revealed criteria were translated into indicators. Four different energy scenarios were evaluated with respect to each indicator making use of physical measurement, literature review and expert surveys. Third, the weights for each indicator were elicited by interviewing randomly chosen citizens. Those citizens were informed about the scenarios and their impacts prior to the weighting process in a four day seminar. As a result most citizens favoured more moderate energy scenarios assigning high priority to energy conservation. Nuclear energy was perceived as necessary energy source in the long run, but should be restricted to meet only the demand that cannot be covered by other energy means.