A model for energy supply systems alternatives and their general environmental impact

Abstract

The overall objective of the energy strategies modelling effort within IIASA's Energy Systems Program is to construct a set of multiregional models of the world to assist in the analysis and evaluation of regional and global energy strategies for the next 15 to 50 years. The energy system of each world region is characterized by a set of interrelated models, each dealing with a different aspect of energy systems analysis. These include (1) models of the macroeconomy; (2) inter-industry product flows; (3) energy demand; (4) primary energy resources; (5) energy supply technologies and their environmental impact; and of (6) the direct and indirect investment and operational requirements of energy systems. A global balance model of interregional trade in energy resources is under preparation for linking the set of regional models together. The present paper is concerned with item 5 above, namely the model MESSAGE, a Model for Energy Supply System Alternatives and Their General Environmental Impact. MESSAGE is formulated as a dynamic linear program for the comparison of new and existing supply technologies for the primary, secondary and end-use conversion and distribution of energy to satisfy each of the different components of a given energy demand. Constraints are imposed by the availability of primary energy resources and the carrying capacity of the environment. MESSAGE is an instrument designed to compare different energy supply and end-use technologies and to explore the consequences of pursuing a wide range of possible energy supply strategies under various assumptions concerning: the availability of primary energy supply; future energy conversion technologies; different levels of energy demand and end-use patterns; environmental control; and conservation of energy. The purpose of MESSAGE in particular, and of the modelling effort of the Energy Systems Program in general, is not to make predictions or forecasts but to clarify some of the major worldwide consequences of taking alternative energy policy choices at the regional and global levels. Although the model described here was conceived as an integral part of the multiregional energy study of the Energy Systems Program, it is a consistent entity which could be used independently of the other models in evaluating the energy supply strategies of individual nations.