Chance at foresight - risk of misuse? : an empirical study of scenario simulation for natural hazard risk management

Abstract

For the past few decades, the losses caused by natural catastrophes have risen continuously. Though changing hazard frequencies may explain some of this, it cannot be neglected that human and social drivers play a role too; hence, the importance of effective management strategies. A problem in this regard concerns that it is often difficult to get decision-makers to prioritize preparedness planning and risk management measures in times of calm, meaning that it is often not until disaster has already hit that necessary reforms are being implemented. In theory, the possibility to simulate the likely outcomes of one or more natural hazard scenarios represents a promising prospect for change in this respect. By showing the consequences of being hit while there is still time to act, simulations - so it is proposed - will motivate decision-makers to take relevant steps and measures in foresight rather than in hindsight. At the same time, all models are simplifications of reality, meaning that all output will be associated with intrinsic uncertainties and predictive limitations. In this regard, it is often pointed to as a risk factor that actors in policy and practice without specific expertise in the field of modeling and simulation (so called ‘non-experts’) may nevertheless expect these to deliver certain research results in line with what has been achieved in relation to invariant natural phenomena in the hypothetico-deductive science tradition. While hazard maps and other forms of simulation-based hazard assessments can allow for better planning and decision-making, then, there is also the risk of them not being used or - perhaps even worse - of them being misused. This thesis explores how simulation-based information about the likely consequences of natural hazard scenarios are responded to and used by non-experts responsible for directing and managing the communal risk response. It focuses on flood hazard maps produced in the German state of Baden-Württemberg, but also touches upon alpine hazard simulations produced in Austria.