Integrated assessment of atmospheric environmental management in China

Abstract

China is facing severe challenges of air pollution and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions with rapid economic development, industrialization and urbanization. Continued reductions in air pollutants and GHG emissions are critical, as they pose serious threats to human health and the environment. Air pollution and climate change are largely affected by similar sources and may interact with each other through atmospheric chemical reactions. This study developed a methodology to analyse the integrated impacts of atmospheric environmental policies on human health and climate change in China. Emission estimation, air quality modelling, health impact assessment, and economic evaluation are synthesized following the full-chain impact pathway from sources of emissions via environmental quality changes to physical and economic impacts. A quantitative assessment of the economic health and climatic benefits from emission reduction of air pollutants and GHG under different present and future scenarios in China is presented. Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses are conducted to provide information on the robustness of the results. The modelling results show that the years of life lost (YOLL) attributable to PM2.5 exposure are 8.2 and 13.4 million in 2010 and 2030 considering current legislation in China. The corresponding damage costs amount to about 3.9 and 5.2% of China’s gross domestic product (GDP) in 2010 and 2030, respectively. Aggressive control policies will lead to significant benefits in the aspects of health and climate change mitigation. The integrated benefits of the three investigated policy scenarios are estimated to be 239.9 (95% CI: 41.5, 1387.8), 353.1 (32.9, 3789.4), and 619.5 (87.2, 4403.5) billion EUR2010 in 2030, respectively. Clear provincial disparities on emissions, concentration levels, and attainable benefits from policy measures exist in China. Higher per capita benefits from policy measures are estimated for provinces with high population density and energy intensity. The integrated assessment methodology developed in this study enables simultaneous consideration of air pollution induced health effects and GHG related climatic effects in the process of environmental policy development in China. The reduction potential and integrated benefits from policy measures estimated in this study provide valuable policy insights for China and other developing countries.