04 Fakultät Energie-, Verfahrens- und Biotechnik

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Author: search.filters.author.Bickel, Peter

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    Entwicklung und Anwendung eines Integrated Assessment Modellinstrumentariums für die Analyse nachhaltiger Entwicklungen der Energieversorgung in Deutschland : Schlussbericht
    (2004) Fahl, Ulrich; Bickel, Peter; Blesl, Markus; Droste-Franke, Bert; Ellersdorfer, Ingo; Rehrl, Tobias; Remme, Uwe; Rout, Ullash Kumar; Voß, Alfred
    Ziel des Forschungsvorhabens ist es, ein Integrated Assessment Modellinstrumentarium zu entwickeln und für die Analyse nachhaltiger Entwicklungen der Energieversorgung in Deutschland im globalen und europäischen Kontext anzuwenden. Das Modellinstrumentarium setzt sich aus vier Bausteinen zusammen. Zur Beurteilung der ressourcenbezogenen Effekte der globalen wie regionalen Nachfrage nach Primärenergieträgern ist das neu entwickelte Ressourcenmodell LOPEX an das Allgemeine Gleichgewichtsmodell NEWAGE-World gekoppelt worden. Auf der Basis der mit NEWAGE ermittelten weltweiten regionalisierten Nachfragen nach Energieträgern werden mit LOPEX Produktions- und Abbaupfade sowie Preispfade für die Energieträger Erdöl, Erdgas und Steinkohle abgeschätzt. Zum anderen wird durch die Anbindung des Umwelt Wirkungsmodells EcoSense an das europäische Energiesystemmodell TIMES-ES, das Deutschland und seine Nachbarstaaten hinsichtlich der gesamten Energieflüsse von den Energiedienstleistungen bis zur Primärenergiebereitstellung und die dabei entstehenden Emissionen erfasst, eine effiziente und zuverlässige Bewertung von Emissionsminderungsstrategien unter Berücksichtigung externer Effekte und Nachhaltigkeitsindikatoren auf europäischer Ebene ermöglicht.
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    ExternE : externalities of energy : methodology 2005 update
    (Luxembourg : Office for Official Publications of the European Communities, 2005) Bickel, Peter; Friedrich, Rainer; Droste-Franke, Bert; Bachmann, Till; Greßmann, Alexander; Rabl, Ari; Hunt, Aaron; Markandya, Anil; Tol, Richard; Hurley, Fintan; Navrud, Stale; Hirschberg, Stefan; Burgherr, Peter; Heck, Thomas; Torfs, Rudi; De Nocker, Leo; Vermoote, Stijn; Int Panis, Luc; Tidblad, Johan; Bickel, Peter; Friedrich, Rainer
    The ExternE methodology provides a framework for transforming impacts that are expressed in different units into a common unit - monetary values. It has the following principal stages: 1) Definition of the activity to be assessed and the background scenario where the activity is embedded. Definition of the important impact categories and externalities. 2) Estimation of the impacts or effects of the activity (in physical units). In general, the impacts allocated to the activity are the difference between the impacts of the scenario with and the scenario without the activity. 3) Monetisation of the impacts, leading to external costs. 4) Assessment of uncertainties, sensitivity analysis. 5) Analysis of the results, drawing of conclusions. The ExternE methodology aims to cover all relevant (i.e. not negligible) external effects. The purpose of ongoing research is to cover more effects and thus reduce gaps and in addition refine the methodology to reduce uncertainties. Currently, the following impact categories are included in the methodology and described in detail in this report: 1) Environmental impacts: Impacts that are caused by releasing either substances (e.g. fine particles) or energy (noise, radiation, heat) into the environmental media air, soil and water. The methodology used here is the impact pathway approach. 2) Global warming impacts: For global warming, two approaches are followed. First, the quantifiable damage is estimated. However, due to large uncertainties and possible gaps, an avoidance cost approach is used as the recommended methodology. 3) Accidents: Accidents are rare unwanted events in contrast to normal operation. A distinction can be made between impacts to the public and occupational accident risks. Public risks can in principle be assessed by describing the possible accidents, calculating the damage and by multiplying the damage with the probability of the accidents. An issue not yet accounted for here is the valuation so-called ‘Damocles’ risks, for which high impacts with low probability are seen as more problematic than vice versa, even if the expected value is the same. A method for addressing this risk type has still to be developed.
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    Proposal for harmonised guidelines for the integrated assessment of transport projects in Europe
    (Stuttgart : Institute of Energy Economics and Rational Energy Use, University of Stuttgart, 2006) Bickel, Peter; Friedrich, Rainer; Burgess, Arnaud; Droste-Franke, Bert; Fagiani, Patrizia; Hunt, Alistair; De Jong, Gerard; Laird, James; Lieb, Christoph; Lindberg, Gunnar; Mackie, Peter; Navrud, Stale; Odgaard, Thomas; Ricci, Andrea; Shires, Jeremy; Tavasszy, Lori; Friedrich, Rainer
    In this report harmonised guidelines for the assessment of trans-national projects in Europe are proposed. This includes the provision of a consistent framework for monetary valuation based on the principles of welfare economics, contributing to transport costing. Recommendations for infrastructure project appraisal are given covering the following elements: • General issues (incl. non-market valuation techniques, benefit transfer, treatment of nonmonetised impacts, discounting and intra-generational equity issues, decision criteria, project appraisal evaluation period, treatment of future risk and uncertainty, marginal costs of public funds, producer surplus of transport providers, the treatment of indirect socio-economic effects), • Value of time and congestion (incl. business passenger traffic, non-work passenger traffic, commercial goods traffic time savings and treatment of congestion, unexpected delays and reliability), • Value of changes in accident risks (incl. accident impacts considered, estimating accident risks, valuing accident costs), • Environmental costs (incl. air pollution, noise, global warming), • Costs and indirect impacts of infrastructure investments (incl. capital costs for project implementation, costs for maintenance, operation and administration, changes in infrastructure costs on existing networks, optimism bias, residual value).